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Showing posts from August, 2021

Pre - Market Analysis (31st August 2021)

U.S Markets closed flat Yesterday. Asian Markets are lower now. Right now , Dow Futures are flat. SGX Nifty is Trading near 16920. Yesterday we had a phenomenal rally on frontline indices. Nifty claimed yet another record high & Bank Nifty broke out of 36k. This Bank Nifty breakout led Nifty as well. Nifty is up 1000 Points in last 1 Month. Who would've thought that something like this might happen. This is Stock Market and it surprises even the best and experienced people out there. 17000 is just around the corner now. There's a high chance of breaching 17k this Expiry itself. Today we have a very important event coming up. GDP data for Q1 2021 will be out later during the day. As most of the Economy has opened up I expect GDP data to be better compared to previous figure. Bank Nifty should outperform from here. I have a Gut feeling that Q1 GDP data might help Nifty to gap up above 17k tomorrow. Provided we don't cross 17k today. Nifty might Trade between 1...

Pre - Market Analysis (30th August 2021)

U.S Markets closed higher on Friday. Right now , Dow Futures are flat. Asian Markets are mixed. SGX Nifty is Trading near 16800 now. 16700 was a resistance for Nifty. Market closed Exactly near the resistance on Friday. Previously as well I've mentioned that Big players generally do not give a chance for Small players to enter in such situations. Generally when Breakout has to happen it happens with a gap up. Today it's Exactly the same. Jerome Powell the U.S Fed Chairman indicated that the Tapering process would begin by the Year end. Also he Cleverly indicated that Interest rates would not be hiked in near future. When I was a Child I used to love Chocolates. So my mother used to add a tiny pinch of Chocolate to Healthy food and make me eat. Jerome Powell has done exactly the same & Market as of now had a relief. Tomorrow we have the Most Important GDP data coming up. U.S Fix on Friday crashed more than 10% and crashed below 16. India VIX is the range of 12-13...

Pre - Market Analysis (27th August 2021)

U.S Markets closed lower Yesterday. Right now , U.S Futures are higher. Asian Markets are higher. SGX Nifty is Trading near 16670 now. August Series was a Fantastic one for the Bulls. Nifty broke out of 16k in the first week and then it was no looking back. Nifty has rallied 700 Points in August series. Bank Nifty is the problem. Bank Nifty is at the same level as it was on August beginning. Banks are struggling to perform. SBI always comes up with great results but the Stock never moves. Infact the Stock is lower than the results price. IT Stocks have been on fantastic Bull run and there's no signs of stoppage. Infosys even after facing related to its Income Tax Portal continues to rally. 16700 is a resistance for Nifty it's just a matter of time before we cross this level. Expecting the rally to Continue but not at such faster pace. It's not wise to think about a crash now and take short positions. Trends take a long time to bend. Until then it's wise to f...

Pre - Market Analysis (26th August 2021)

U.S Markets closed Flat Yesterday. Asian Markets were weak. Right now Dow Futures are Slightly lower & Asian Markets futures are very weak. SGX Nifty is Trading near 16630. Something Unusual happened Yesterday. Above is Yesterday's chart of Nifty. Nifty Yesterday from 16700 to 16640 then broke 16700 and went 16712. As soon as Nifty broke 16700 Call Premiums rose significantly. Many Traders assumed this Green Candle as a Breakout and went long. Within few minutes Nifty again came back to 16640. This shows that Big People who control the Market do not want Small Trader's to make money. They will sometimes give fake trading signals let you enter into trade and then take away your Stoploss. Trading is a business and when you enter into a new business your competitor won't keep a red blanket to welcome you. They will do all the tricks to throw you out of the business so that they are in control. This isn't the first time this has happened. This ha...

Pre - Market Analysis (25th August 2021)

U.S Markets closed Slightly higher Yesterday. Asian Markets were on fire Yesterday. Particularly , Hang Seng and Chinese Markets. After Afghanistan issue , Asian Markets witnessed heavy profit booking. Now , all of the losses have been refovered. SGX Nifty is near 16650 now. Coming to our Markets , India VIX again crashed Yesterday. Right now , the option premiums are too low. Bank Nifty witnessed heavy buying Yesterday. FII's were net buyers. When FII's buy , they buy HDFC twins. Both HDFC Bank and HDFC Ltd witnessed significant buying Yesterday. HDFC Ltd closed lower but recovered from low point of the day. HDFC Bank , after Credit card Announcement has been performing very well. Today is Wednesday and remember Wednesdays are highly Volatile. Option writers take positions and trades get taken considering expiry. This Makes Wednesdays Volatile. I expect first half to be quiet but 2nd half to be Volatile today. Have to see what's in store today. Expecting 16700 ...

Pre - Market Analysis (24th August 2021)

U.S Markets closed higher Yesterday. Nasdaq hit a fresh all time high Yesterday. Asian Markets are all in Green. Right now U.S Futures are slightly higher. SGX Nifty is trading near 16580 now. IT Stocks are the flavour of the town now. Yesterday, IT index was up more than 2%. Technology stocks all over the World have been on a rally. Money is shifting from Small / Mid Caps to large caps. Lathi Charge has begun on Broader Market stocks like Mid / Small Caps. As I've been Cautioning , it's time to review your portfolio and exit out of junk. Waiting for your cost price to come back might never happen or it may take many more years. My fear is due to interest being shifted to Largecaps , these stocks are getting more and more expensive day by day. Just a handful of Stocks cannot keep Market higher in the long term. These handful of Stocks are becoming too much expensive and when these start to correct that's when Markets as a whole would start a correction. As I men...

Pre - Market Analysis (23rd August 2021)

U.S Markets closed higher on Friday. Asian Markets are all in Green. Right now U.S Futures are also higher. SGX Nifty is trading near 16580 now. Markets all over the World fell Uniformly on Thursday due to Taper Tantrum. Indian Markets fell due to Taliban border cealing. Now the Markets have taken into its stride and ready to move on. Bull Market Corrections are fast & Furious. Rallies too are equally fast & furious. That's why trading in Bull Markets can be tricky. Markets May turnaround suddenly just due to some small negatives. Last week's expiry generally are highly Volatile. This is due to low Premiums and high Vega. Volatility is high in last week's expiry so Gama effect maximises option prices in short span. India VIX was higher 8% on Friday but I expect it to go lower today. India VIX going down is a good news for option sellers. Expect this week's Nifty range between 16300 to 16700. Bank Nifty looks very weak and rallies are am Opportunity t...

Pre - Market Analysis (20th August 2021)

U.S Markets closed lower on Wednesday. Thursday our Markets were closed. Yesterday, U.S Markets were flat. Asian Markets are all down. SGX Nifty is down by 200 Points and Trading near 16350. Reason for this is Majorly due to Afghanistan issue. Afghanistan has closed down its borders and has restricted movement of goods. Import and Export have now been stopped by the entry of Taliban. This news had come around on Wednesday and was confirmed by the Authorities later during the day. Indian Exports and Imports from Afghanistan is more than 1200 Million $ per year. This Blockage and restriction will hamper India's Business in future. U.S Fed also indicating taper tantrum to take place much sooner than expected. All these news over the Holiday has led to such fall. Now the Million Dollar Question is what Next from here? The trend now has surely become Negative. Market wont fall in a straight line but will witness bounce in between. These bounce should be used as an Opportunit...

Pre - Market Analysis (18th August 2021)

U.S Markets closed lower Yesterday. This is due to Tensions floating in Afghanistan. Asian Markets were negative yesterday during the Trading hours. Now , all of them have recovered. SGX Nifty is Trading around 16650. It is safe to say that Indian Markets are outperforming the Global Markets. August series continues to be dominated by the Bulls. Yesterday evening , a news emerged that RBI has allowed HDFC Bank to issue Credit Cards. HDFC Bank has been underperforming from quite a long time due to RBI restriction. This temporary lift of Ban might trigger some Positivity in the Stock. Bank Nifty might outperform today as HDFC Bank has the highest weight in Bank Nifty. Lot of calls have been written at 16600 and 36k for Bank Nifty. Yesterday's last 30 mins rally in the Markets have caused a trouble for these people. 16500 straddle also has the highest open interest. So if Market sustains the Positivity we might see unwinding of these Call writers which will further take th...

Pre - Market Analysis (17th August 2021)

U.S Markets at one point were down 300 points but closed slightly positive towards end of the day. Dow Futures are trading Negative now. Asian Markets are mostly negative. SGX Nifty touched a high of 16600 yesterday but now trading at 16560. 16500 Straddle has the open interest for this week's expiry. It's trading at ₹160 combined. So we can expect a range of 16340 to 16660 for this week. Tomorrow we have the weekly expiry as Thursday is a trading holiday. Penultimate days before expiry are highly Volatile on Intraday basis. Any 80-100 points dip on Nifty , I would be ready to sell 16000 PE (Monthly Expiry). In a Bull Market at the Beginning , all Stocks go up. Whether they have good Fundamentals or not doesn't matter irrespective of the same everything goes up. May 2020 to June 2021 we had this phase. In the next phase , Money shifts from lesser quality stocks to Quality Largecaps. We are in this phase now where the money is being shifted from Midcaps to Largec...

Pre - Market Analysis (13th August 2021)

U.S Markets closed Flat Yesterday. Dow Futures are flat. Asian Markets are flat. SGX Nifty is also flat at 16370. Yesterday we had a good strong expiry. In the Blog Yesterday, I had mentioned I was expecting a Rangebound expiry with a positive bias. Yesterday's expiry happened exactly the same. Smart option writers made huge money yesterday. Slowly but steadily market is inching higher. It's surprising to see markets going up in straight line. Usually we see big scary corrections in Bull Market. This Bull Market hasnt witnessed a correction above 5% at any point of time. This is what worries me , Market going up or down in a straight line is not good. When Market falls in future it will be equally severe. That's In future , but in present this Market is looking strong. Momentum is with Largecaps and money is shifting from Small Cap / Midcap to Large Caps. Option Buyers are not getting much from this Market. Movement is there but it's quite slow. India VIX is...

Pre - Market Analysis (12th August 2021)

U.S Markets closed higher Yesterday. Dow futures are flat now. Asian Markets are mixed. Yesterday U.S Inflation data came as it was lower than Expected. Inflation data being lower postpones the chances of increase in Interest rates. That's why the Global Markets were higher. SGX Nifty hit an all time high of 16370 Yesterday. Now it's cooled off and Trading near 16330. Yesterday the Markets were Volatile during Intraday. We had a gap up and then we witnessed selling but ultimately closing flat. Yesterday was also a Consolidation on a close to close basis for Nifty. Weekly Expirys are generally Rangebound unless there are any fresh news. Expecting the same today. Expecting weekly expiry to be ranging with slight positive bias. From last few days , Midcaps and small caps have been witnessing good amount of profit booking. There is a Distribution happening and money seems to be shifting to largecap stocks. I am Bullish on Airtel for long term. Reason is simple , Idea Vo...

Pre - Market Analysis (11th August 2021)

U.S Markets closed higher Yesterday. Dow futures are flat now. Asian Markets are mixed. SGX Nifty is trading around 16300. Yesterday we touched 16350 on Nifty but we were unable to sustain this gap up. Towards the end of the day Trading day severe profit booking was witnessed. Ultimately markets closed almost flat. This happens when we have a huge breakout. Nifty broke out of 16k with full steam and after that we are consolidating. Today is Wednesday and remember Wednesdays are highly Volatile. As we have an Expiry tomorrow so expiry related issues might kick in. In spite of severe profit booking yesterday 16000 PE added huge open interest. This shows the confidence of Bulls. We are in a Consolidation phase and this might continue a bit longer. Zomato posted results yesterday are they do not look good. Loss reported by the company has increased by 360% YOY. I have repeatedly Cautioning that this stock is trading at high Valuations and one needs to be careful. This will be a...

Pre - Market Analysis (10th August 2021)

U.S Markets closed slightly lower Yesterday. Dow futures are slightly lower now. Asian Markets are mixed. SGX Nifty is trading around 16250. We are poised for a flat opening today. Yesterday Bank Nifty saved the day for Bull's. Nifty after a long time underperformed Yesterday. I expect the Underperformance to continue for this Expiry. 16000 PE has the highest open interest for this week's Expiry. So on any dip selling 16k PE is advisable for Bulls. Yesterday we consolidated throughout the day on Nifty. Bank Nifty was very Volatile as Expected. This is not a Market where you can blindly go and buy any stock and make money. Market is highly Overvalued now so one has to be stock specific in this Market. IT stocks still have some steam left. This is a place for safe investors. Metal stocks have already rallied and doubled in last 6 Months. This sector doesn't seem attractive to me. Consumer , FMCG & IT are preferred sectors as of now. Nifty might Trade between 1...

Pre - Market Analysis (9th August 2021)

U.S Markets closed higher on Friday. Asian Markets are mostly flat. SGX Nifty is trading around 16270. Right now , Dow Futures are flat. Markets after breaking out of 16k have witnessed a fantastic rally. Now it's in Consolidation phase. I expect a limited upside for this week Expiry. Many negative news approaching. Markets seem to be taking it easily as of now. Reaction hasn't been witnessed yet. Idea has approached to Govt of India for handing over the company. Idea has liabilities more than 1.8 lakh crores. It has to repay loans to many major banks. SBI loan book includes 11000 crore given to idea and IDFC first Bank's 3% loan book is of Idea. Due to this turbulence markets were lower In the first half yesterday. 2nd half we tried to recover but failed to close higher Nifty might Trade between 16160 to 16300 today  stockmarketadvisory.in

Pre - Market Analysis (6th August 2021)

U.S Markets closed at fresh record highs Yesterday. Asian Markets are mostly Positive. SGX Nifty is Trading near 16330 as on 7.30 AM. Dow Futures are slightly Negative. Yesterday the major event was Idea Bankruptcy. Idea has approached to Govt of India for handing over the company. Idea has liabilities more than 1.8 lakh crores. It has to repay loans to many major banks. SBI loan book includes 11000 crore given to idea and IDFC first Bank's 3% loan book is of Idea. Due to this turbulence markets were lower In the first half yesterday. In 2nd half FII's have started to buy and Msrkets have made a top. Now the Situation has been changed slightly. Previously , DII's used to buy and FII's used to sell. Now it's the other way round. When FII's start to buy they won't stop and buy on a continuous basis. RBI policy was a Non event yesterday as expected. 16000 is going to be a strong support this Expiry on Nifty. Now this is a buy on dip Market. Wait for...

Pre - Market Analysis (5th August 2021)

U.S Markets witnessed slight profit booking yesterday. Asian Markets are flat. SGX Nifty is trading near 16280 now. Dow Futures are flat. Our Markets have witnessed a fantastic rally in last 2 days. Nifty was up by 400 points  Bank Nifty up by 1500 + points. Hdfc Bank results dragged Bank Nifty lower by 1500 points but now Bank Nifty has recovered all losses. SBI results has turnaround Bank Nifty in the past. Yesterday is was no different. SBI results were better than other Banking results. Bank Nifty crossed 36k briefly at one point. Today is weekly expiry. This rally for last 2 days continue to go as usual. Markets cannot go up so fast everyday. Now Consolidation is required for Bull's. Expecting a ranging day today with Slightly positive bias. Generally weekly expiry are Rangebound. Nifty might Trade between 16180 to 16340 today. stockmarketadvisory.in

Pre- Market Analysis (4th August 2021)

U.S Markets closed higher Yesterday. Asian Markets are also higher. SGX Nifty is trading above 16200. Dow futures are also higher. Yesterday we finally broke out above 16k. 16k had huge call writing. Both in weekly and monthly expiry. When we broke out above 16k. All these writers had to run for cover. And this propelled Nifty higher. It was a huge short covering rally as soon as we crossed 16k. My prediction of Nifty not crossing 16k was wrong but I still made money. So there's no reason for me to be unhappy. Today the main Event is SBI results. SBI has a history of Declaring fantastic results. In the past as and when SBI declared results  Bank Nifty rallied at least 400 points  Today would be very intresting for Bull's. I know many People who are still short on this Market. Due to arrogance that Market should fall. These will have bleeding red on their trades. There's still upside left from here. SBI results will decide due course of action. Nifty might Trade ...

Pre - Market Analysis (3rd August 2021)

U.S Markets closed flat yesterday. Asian Markets are mostly flat. SGX Nifty is howering around 15900. Right now Dow futures are also flat. There were some positive news over the weekend. The GST Collection for July came at 1.16 lakh crore. This is the top 3 highest GST Collections till date. Auto Companies reported good sales numbers. Due to these positive news we are indicating towards a 100 points gap up. 15900 was a resistance yesterday. Nifty tried to break 15900 throughout the day. But failed to break it decisively. Today it would be another attempt to cross 15900. Let's see what happens during the day. I've sold 16000 CE yesterday. (weekly expiry) Yesterday for the first time , Nifty futures closed above 15900. FII's keep selling rigorously. DII's and retail people are supporting this Market. Yesterday we witnessed some selling after 2.30 but was recovered during the day. Nifty might Trade between 15780 to 15940 today. stockmarketadvisory.in

Pre - Market Analysis (2nd August 2021)

U.S Markets closed lower on Friday. Right now U.S Futures are Trading higher. SGX Nifty is Trading near 15900. Asian Markets are higher. There were some positive news over the weekend. The GST Collection for July came at 1.16 lakh crore. This is the top 3 highest GST Collections till date. Auto Companies reported good sales numbers. Due to these positive news we are indicating towards a 100 points gap up. I would sell if we open near 15900. At 15900 I would short the Nifty with 50% of my volume and near 15950 I would look to short again with 50% of the remaining volume with a stoploss of 16k. If it works its well and good. Else I'm prepared to take my Stoploss. 16000 CE continues to have highest open interest for August series. July series too we had the same situation. Thus we can expect it to act as stiff resistance. Surprisingly , 15000 PE has the first highest open interest in August. Second highest Open interest is at 15500 PE. This shows that people are more fearf...