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Showing posts from September, 2022

Pre - Market Analysis (30th September 2022)

U.S Markets closed lower yesterday. Right now , Dow Futures are flat  SGX Nifty is down 100 points. Markets are becoming highly irrational and volatile on daily basis now. On Wednesday U.S Markets gained more than 2%. Yesterday , all of those gains have been given up. Apple stock is down 8% in last 2 trading sessions. This is because there have been news about cutting production of apple units. Global economy is looking very bad now. Almost every country is been undergoing through some issue. H&M the world's 2nd largest retailer has launched a cost cutting drive today. To reduce the business expenses and also to tackle the global economy issues. When major companies start reporting of a Slowdown then it's something to worry about. I must say, Indian stock markets have been doing exceptionally well compared to Global markets. This is my 9th year in Stock Market, and before this whenever U.S Markets fell 10% we used to fall 15-20%. This is the first time I'm s...

Pre - Market Analysis (29th September 2022)

U.S Markets closed higher Yesterday. Right now , Dow Futures are lower. SGX Nifty is up 200 Points  100-150 point gap up / gap down has become a normal routine now  U.S VIX crashed 7% Yesterday. This is a good sign for option sellers and also markets. As Volatility would reduce and markets find stability. Today as per SGX we are likely to open above 17k. 17k CE has the highest open interest for today's expiry If we sustain above 17k and cross Yesterday's high of 17100 this will induce huge short covering. Today is expiry so crazy things happen on expiry days. This is because of expiry related issues etc. Another Possibility is FII's use this gap up as an Opportunity to sell big . Previous 6 trading sessions, FII's have sold for 16500 crores  This is intense selling owing to Rupee depreciation. Today will they again use this as an opportunity to sell or will cover shorts. We shall know by the first hour price action. Generally on expiry days we have an inside...

Pre - Market Analysis (28th September 2022)

U.S Markets closed lower yesterday. Right now , Dow Futures are lower. SGX Nifty is down 100-150 points  100-150 point gap up / gap down has become a normal routine now  Markets now have become highly volatile. Yesterday as I predicted the range from 16950 to 17250 held throughout the day. In between this range , market kept swinging violently. U.S VIX shot up above 34 Yesterday. U.S Markets have now broken Russia Ukraine war lows decisively. This has become a sell on rally market now. All the rallies are being sold into vigorously. Currency problem is further accentuating the fall. Since November 2021 , markets haven't gone anywhere. Infact as of now they have become negative for the year. Only positive for our markets are we are outperforming the Global markets. We are very very far away from War lows. Which gives me fear that we might fall heavily when selling begins. 16800 to 17000 is the range now. Once 16800 gets taken out there would be heavy selling and 165...

Pre - Market Analysis (27th September 2022)

U.S Markets closed lower yesterday. Right now , Dow Futures are higher  SGX Nifty is up by 80-100 points  100 point gap up / gap down has become a normal routine now  Markets now have become highly volatile. Yesterday as soon as markets opened there was a heavy sell off. Throughout the first half markets were sliding. Finally Nifty found some support near 17k. There was a short covering bounce from 17k to 17150. That was sold into during the end of the day. Put Call Ratio right now is at 0.58 Max PCR I have seen in my life is 0.8. Generally markets bottom out at 0.8 PCR. This is astonishing and the markets are too oversold  Any Positive trigger could easily take markets higher by 300-500 points. 17000 to 17200 is the range for now. Breach of any of these level could give a trending move. Until then markets is likely to be volatile within the range  The reason for such bearishness is Rupee depreciation. Rupee is now at 81.5 against US Dollar  Cur...

Pre - Market Analysis (26th September 2022)

U.S Markets closed lower on Friday. Right now , Dow futures are lower. Asian markets are lower. SGX Nifty is down 100-120 Points. Today we are likely to have a gap down opening. Markets have now turned clearly bearish. The most worrying sign now is U.S VIX. U.S VIX closed above 30 on Friday. VIX above 30 is a dangerous sign for the markets. This shows the fear is extreme. Generally, when the fear is extreme the Volatility is also the extreme. The trend has now turned clearly bearish  U.S Markets have now broken Russia - Ukraine war lows. 15200 was our low during Russia - Ukraine war. We are still 2000 points away from those lows. Our markets have been outperforming compared to rest of the Global markets. The only Question is for how long? For how long can we keep outperforming the Global markets is a million dollar question. Bank Nifty which was providing strength to the markets in last 2 weeks has also turned bearish. Infact it's worse than Nifty. 17200 is a very stron...

Pre - Market Analysis (23rd September 2022)

U.S Markets closed lower yesterday. Right now , Dow futures are lower. Asian markets are lower. SGX Nifty is down 100-120 Points. Today we are likely to have a gap down opening. Markets yesterday were highly volatile. Reason was the gap down and also weekly expiry. Weekly expiry issues trigger huge Volatility Intraday. Markets yesterday opened lower then recovered close to 17700 followed by another round of selling close to 17550. Dow futures from negative turned positive & Nifty again went to days high. From there closing lower close to 17600. So it was all over the place yesterday. Issue is now with U.S Markets  U.S Markets are making lower lows on a daily basis now  Yesterday as well U.S markets closed lower. With Global sentiment being so bearish so cannot keep going higher at a brisk pace. 18000 is a strong resistance from here on. Generally last week of the month are more Volatile  Gamma effect also kicks in. Yesterday Bank Nifty gave the first sign ...

Pre - Market Analysis (22nd September 2022)

U.S Markets closed lower yesterday. Right now , Dow futures are lower. Asian markets are lower. SGX Nifty is down 100-120 Points. Today we are likely to have a gap down opening. Reason is the U.S FED policy. Yesterday, the Fed Chairman has increased the rates by 75 basis points. Market expectations were 100 basis points. This was a third straight increase of 75 basis points to tackle inflation. Inflation in U.S has been above 8% Consistently since past many months. FED has to be ultra aggressive in tackling the same  FED was also a bit Hawkish and commented that there would be more rate hikes in future. U.S markets were highly volatile and we're moving all over the places. Finally closing lower. 17400 to 18100 is the range for Nifty. This is a broader range  Within this range market has been making huge swings  Indian Markets are outperforming U.S Markets. 17500 PE has the highest open interest today. This would be a good support for today. Resistance to kick ...

Pre - Market Analysis (21st September 2022)

U.S Markets closed lower yesterday. Right now , Dow futures are higher. Asian markets are mixed. SGX Nifty is down 50-70 Points. Yesterday it was a very unexpected trading session. As it has been happening most of the times  Nifty opened 150 points higher. Was steady throughout and was slowing inching higher. At one point of time , Nifty was higher by 300 points. Last 1 hour only to fall by 150 points. There was no reason for Nifty to be 300 points higher yesterday. When all the Global markets were flat / negative. These are erractic price movements. Markets have been moving everywhere between 17400 to 18100. We have Fed decison today. Expect Volatility to increase before Fed decision. U.S VIX closed above 27 yesterday. India VIX was still at 19 yesterday. Option premiums yesterday crashed on both calls and puts. Put premiums crashed by 50-60% and calls did not go higher proportionately. Surprisingly, there has been high open interest addition from 17500 to 17800 PE. Ha...

Pre - Market Analysis (20th September 2022)

U.S Markets closed higher Yesterday. Right now , Dow futures are higher. Asian markets are higher. SGX Nifty is up 100-120 Points. Yesterday markets in the first hour were highly volatile. Markets opened close to 17600 but as soon as Market opened there was heavy sell off  Nifty tested 17400 and then bounced back swiftly from there. India VIX at one point was above 20 yesterday. India VIX above 18 indicates danger. It indicates there would be huge Volatility in store. Markets have been repeatedly finding supports near 17400-17300 zone. Resistance near 18000-18100 zones. Within this range markets have been trading with huge Volatility. I have taken a short strangle of 17000 PE & 18200 CE at 115rs combined premium Yesterday. This generates a 6% return till expiry if nifty expires between 17000 to 18200. With just 8 trading sessions left this is a very lucrative strategy and premium. Expecting Nifty not to cross any of the above level. Even if it does we know how to ad...

Pre - Market Analysis (19th September 2022)

U.S Markets closed lower on Friday. Right now , Dow futures are lower. Asian markets are lower. SGX Nifty is flat  Friday was a day of Bloodbath in our Markets. Nifty future high was 18100 on Thursday. Yesterday low was 17500. This is a fall of 600 points in just a single trading day. India is a high beta market. When our market goes higher it's super quick. Similarly, when markets go lower. 17500 is a major support now  If this is taken out then doors for 17200 open up. Markets all over the World are fearful about 100 basis points rate hike. This rate hike is likely getting factored in. This is a high volatile market. The swings are really big. Many stocks have turned bearish on Friday. Nifty might Trade between 17400 to 17700 today. stockmarketadvisory.in

Pre - Market Analysis (16th September 2022)

U.S Markets closed lower Yesterday. Right now , Dow futures are lower. Asian markets are lower. SGX Nifty is down 100-120 points. Yesterday was a high volatile expiry. Markets from being in the Positive suddenly witnessed a sharp dip. Markets almost closed at the lowest point Yesterday. Bank Nifty was the most volatile of all. At one point of time it was up 500 points but closed in negative. IT Index continues to face the Heat. All IT Stocks were down yesterday. Now , after the August Inflation data was announced at 8.3%. Markets are expecting a rate hike of 100 basis points. We have had two 75 basis points rate hikes upto now. This is going to be the biggest of all the rate hikes. Markets are fearing about this rate hike and might also be factoring in the same. For whole of 2022 markets have been like crazy. Not going anywhere but have been highly volatile. Nifty might Trade between 17680 to 18000 today. stockmarketadvisory.in

Pre - Market Analysis (15th September 2022)

U.S Markets closed mixed Yesterday. Right now , Dow futures are higher. Asian markets are slightly higher  SGX Nifty is up 20-30 points. Yesterday was a total surprise from the markets. Nifty was Indicating a gap down close 17750 but markets opened above 17800 and continued to move higher. Bank Nifty rallied 1400 points from the day low. Nifty rallied 250 points from the days low. All this happened against the Global trend. This isn't the first instance where this has happened. In September itself , when Fed Chairman expressed his concerns over Inflation , Nifty made a 300 point gap down. Entire loss was wiped off the next day. Bank Nifty is actually on steroids. It's just 200 points away from all time highs. All the Banks are flying. FII's sold for 1400 cr yesterday and DII's bought for 150 cr. There was a net outflow of 1250 cr and still the markets closed higher. IT Index crashed 3% yesterday. I expect that markets are factoring something ahead of time. W...

Pre - Market Analysis (14th September 2022)

U.S Markets closed lower Yesterday. Dow Jones & S&P 500 crashed 4% each. Nasdaq crashed 5% Yesterday. SGX Nifty is indicating a 300 point massive gap down today  Asian markets are lower. Reason is the U.S Inflation data which got released yesterday. Inflation data arrived was at 8.3% . This Data was higher than the expected data. Market wasn't expecting Inflation data to be above 8%. But this data shocked the markets. Yesterday Dow futures were higher till Inflation data was announced. They were higher by 200 points. As soon as Inflation data got announced it spooked the markets  U.S VIX rose 15% Yesterday. Right now Dow futures are slightly higher. 17800 is a strong support for Nifty. It this holds we can expect fall to reduce. Fall shouldn't be drastic if Nifty holds 17800. Yesterday many traders had longs as Nifty closed above 18k. All these traders will be chopped off due to this gap down. Nifty might Trade between 17700 to 18000 today. stockmarketadvis...

Pre - Market Analysis (13th September 2022)

U.S Markets closed higher Yesterday. Right now Dow futures are Flat. SGX Nifty is higher by 80-100 points. Asian Markets are higher. Today we have a major event. U.S Inflation data for August is to released today. Though I think markets would not react much on this data. This seems more likely to have been factored in by the markets. SGX Nifty is indicating a gap up above 18k today. 18k is an important zone for Nifty. This strike has highest open interest in monthly & weekly options. Plus this is also a psychological resistance level. Closing above 18k will open door to 18200. 17800 is a very important support zone for the markets now. Bank Nifty is outperforming Nifty  Expect Banks to continue outperformance going ahead as well. Nasdaq is also higher in U.S markets. This will boost the IT stocks here in India as well. Nifty might Trade between 17900 to 18100 today. stockmarketadvisory.in

Pre - Market Analysis (12th September 2022)

U.S Markets closed higher on Friday. Right now Dow futures are Flat. SGX Nifty is flat. Asian Markets are mixed. There wasn't any major newsflow over the weekend. Nifty on Friday retested 17800 and bounced from this level. 18000 is a stiff resistance from here on. On Friday bank Nifty closed above 40k significantly. Which is quite a Bullish sign for Banks. FII's were net buyers on Friday. DII's were net sellers. FII's shorts now stand at 78% . U.S August Inflation data is due tomorrow. Markets are likely to be jittery on the back of the Inflation data. Until the data gets announced expecting a sideways market. SBI has crossed it's 52 week highs & has been fresh all time highs on a daily basis now. For Momentum traders and trend followers this is the stock to watch. I strongly feel if Bank Nifty has to rally it should be with the help of SBI. Nifty might Trade between 17700 to 18000 today. stockmarketadvisory.in

Pre - Market Analysis (9th September 2022)

U.S Markets closed higher yesterday. Right now Dow futures are higher. Asian Markets are higher. SGX Nifty is up 100 points. Yesterday Nifty witnessed resistance near 17800 for whole of the expiry. Today it's indicating a gap up above 17800. 17800 to 18000 should be the range now . 18000 CE has the highest open interest amoung weekly options. This would be the next resistance level now. Markets right now seems to be ignoring all the negatives. But this is a high volatile market. So stoploss is a must when trading in such markets. 17800 should be a good support for Intraday now. I would like to buy the dip close to 17800 and sell the rally close to 18000 with 30 point stoploss. If any of these levels gets taken out decisively will follow the trend. Until then it's a ranging market. With sideways moves. Fridays are volatile so trade based on strict stoploss  Nifty might Trade between 17800 to 18000 today. stockmarketadvisory.in

Pre - Market Analysis (8th Sep 2022)

U.S Markets closed higher Yesterday. Right now Dow futures are flat. Asian Markets are mixed. SGX Nifty is up 100 points. Yesterday Nifty opened near 17500 and witnessed a bounce. 17500 to 17800 is the range for Nifty Almost on a daily basis now market is testing the lower and upper end of the range  Unless there is a clear indication of range being crossed we cannot expect a big move. Markets are likely to consolidate within this range itself. Bank Nifty is facing stiff resistance near 40k. This is a very important level for Bank nifty as it also acts as a psychological resistance. Can expect a one way rally only when 40k gets taken out. ITC is the stock to watch. 330 is the all time high for ITC. Above this there would be fireworks. Margin of safety is also quite high for ITC as it's a slow and steady stock. Stay away from Suzlon stock. There have been rumours about Adani investing into this company which has been clarified already. Adani has denied rumours. Still sto...

Pre - Market Analysis (7th Sep 2022)

U.S Markets closed lower yesterday. Right now Dow futures are lower. Asian markets are lower. SGX Nifty is down 200 points  This is a huge gap down. Yesterday many traders sold huge put options from 17500 to 17700. These people will have trouble at opening itself  Nasdaq has fallen for 7 consecutive trading sessions. This is a scary fall. Indian markets have been outperforming in spite of such terrible global cues. This was my major worry as this cannot keep continuing for long  When Market falls it will be ferocious as well. 18000 is the Market top till Diwali. Im Positioning my trades based on the same analysis. Yesterday Reliance supported Nifty. Else position of Nifty would've been worse  Nifty has been trading between 17450 to 17700 for a long time  Closing below 17450 today would lead to more pressure  U.S Markets traded with huge Volatility yesterday. Expect Volatility to shoot up in Indian markets as well. Nifty might Trade between 17350...

Pre - Market Analysis (6th Sep 2022)

U.S Markets were closed yesterday. Right now Dow futures are slightly higher. Asian markets are mixed. SGX Nifty is flat. Yesterday was a Bullish Indian market. This Bullishness persisted inspite of flat Global cues. Markets closed almost at the highest point of the day Yesterday. This is surprising because when I see data it shows otherwise. FII's short position is 81%  In spite of having such huge shorts HDFC twins outperformed yesterday. Data shows FII's have net sold in cash market. Global markets were flat. All this events made yesterday rally a bit puzzling. As everybody knows Indian markets are high beta markets. We go up fast and come down faster. 17500 PE has added huge open interest yesterday. 17600 PE also has decent open interest. Traders are expecting 17500 to act as a strong support. Resistance to come near 17800. Within this 300 point range markets are likely to be volatile. Nifty might Trade between 17500 to 17800 today. stockmarketadvisory.in

Pre - Market Analysis (5th September 2022)

U.S Markets closed lower on Friday. In spite of good jobs data markets closed lower. U.S Markets were in green for the first half but 2nd half witnessed massive sell off. This shows Volatility is again beginning to creep in. Right now Dow futures are higher. Asian markets are mostly lower. SGX Nifty is down 50 points close to 17500. As I pointed out earlier I'm bearish on the markets. 18000 is the positional stoploss for shorts. Another reason for bearishness is Adani group stock prices. Once the bubble bursts here it could damage the sentiment of the Market. 17200 to 17600 is the short term range for Nifty. Expect markets to consolidate within this range for a while. Nasdaq has again turned into bearish zone. Due to this we are witnessing sell off in Indian IT stocks too. FII's after Fed event seem to be confused. Sometimes they sell sometimes they buy big and give mixed signals. That's the reason I don't expect a big trending move anytime soon. Nifty might...

Pre - Market Analysis (2nd September 2022)

U.S Markets closed higher Yesterday. Right now , Dow futures are lower. Asian markets are lower. SGX Nifty is indicating a flat opening. It's a good news for the Bulls that U.S Markets showed resilience yesterday. Nasdaq underperformed Yesterday. In last 12 sessions Nasdaq is down 12%. After a relief rally in IT Stocks again pressure is being exerted. India VIX was up 10% yesterday at one point of time. After 3 pm there was a crash in India VIX & option premiums got eroded. 17200 to 18000 is the larger range for Nifty. Smaller range won't work in this market coz of huge Volatility. Expecting a Consolidation in the short run. Generally when there is huge Volatility market either tops out or bottoms out. Chances of market topping out at 18k is quite high right now. Bank Nifty is however outperforming Nifty. It's more likely that Bank Nifty could outperform from here. Reliance looks strong and once it takes out all time high it would be heading to 3000 levels. ...

Pre - Market Analysis (1st Sep 2022)

U.S Markets closed lower in previous two trading sessions. Asian markets are lower. SGX Nifty is down 350 points near 17500. Now why such huge gap down? I don't know. Infact nobody knows. Everybody is just guessing as of now. Tuesday was a shocking and surprising market move. Markets kept on rallying higher and higher without any corresponding news. It took everybody including me by surprise. Now this gap down is another surprise. Option sellers specially naked sellers are having a very painful time. Thank fully we just have spreads and no naked positions. Volatility is getting out of order now. That too when it happens with huge gap openings. After such huge gap down , shorting goes out of order. Look to buy once 17500 is crossed on Nifty with a stop at days low. Do not carry positions in these kind of markets. FII's bought heavily on Tuesday. This could be an eye wash so they could load higher junk to retail in future. Im very skeptical about Tuesdays move and als...