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Showing posts from July, 2023

Pre - Market Analysis (31st July 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed higher on Friday. 2. All the indices closed in Green. 3. Gift Nifty is up 40-50 Points. 4. Asian markets are mostly higher as well. 5. On Friday,  Nifty stayed negative throughout the day. 6. It was hovering around 19600 for most of the day. 7. In the last hour Nifty started to recover a bit. 8. Both Nifty and Bank Nifty witnessed some sort of pullback in the final hour. 9. The same happened on Thursday as well. 10. There was huge short covering during the last 30 minutes on Thursday as well. 11. Friday as well there was a short covering rally but not as big as that of Thursday.  12. Nifty has taken multiple supports near 19600 now. 13. Bank Nifty has taken multiple supports near the levels of 45300. 14. Fridays low will be a very important support for both the indices. 15. Although the Index was in pressure but on the other hand both Mid & Small caps scaled higher. 16. Advance - Decline ratio was in favor of advances. 17. This shows that ...

Welcome August !! (28th July 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed lower yesterday. 2. All the indices closed in red. 3. Gift Nifty is up 20-40 Points. 4. Asian markets are mostly higher as well. 5. Yesterday , Nifty opened with a gap up and started moving higher. 6. It looked like a stable expiry based on first half price action. 7. As the markets were going higher steadily. 8. But then came the fall  9. Bank Nifty was up 300 points in the first half. 10. In the second half , Bank Nifty started to Crack. 11. Bank Nifty fell 800 points from day high. 12. Nifty crashed 200 points from the day high. 13. All this had happened with heavy Volatility yesterday. 14. In the last 30 minutes there was a huge short covering rally. 15. This short covering rally led Nifty to close near 19700. 16. Weighted average rates of last 30 minutes is taken hence closing was shown near 19660. 17. Yesterday the U.S ViX also jumped 10% intraday. 18. Rate hike fears and jitters still continue. 19. 19600 is a strong support for nifty. 20. Tr...

Expiry Day !! (27th July 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed higher yesterday. 2. All the indices closed in Green although it was quite minor. 3. Nasdaq was the underperformer. 4. Gift Nifty is up 30-40 Points. 5. Asian markets are mostly higher as well. 6. Yesterday , Nifty opened with a gap up and it got sustained throughout the day. 7. At a point of time , Bank Nifty was underperforming nifty. 8. Bank Nifty had covered up its underperformance in second half. 9. There was High Volatility but all within a range. 10. In the last 30 minutes there was slight profit booking  11. 19700 is a strong support for nifty. 12. We could be trading between 19700 to 20k for most of thud Expiry. 13. We have resistances near 19950 to 20k Nifty. 14. Yesterday there was an event in the U.S 15. It's related to the rate hike policy in U.S 16. U.S borrowing rates as now as high as 5.25%. 17. Yesterday the FED raised the rates by 25 basis points. 18. After yesterday's rate hike the rates in U.S are the highest in last 22 year...

Two days of fall (25th July 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed higher yesterday. 2. All the indices closed in Green  3. Nasdaq was the underperformer. 4. Gift Nifty is up 30-40 Points. 5. Asian markets are mostly higher as well. 6. Yesterday , Nifty opened with a gap down of 50-60 points. 7. Throughout the day , it traded flat and within a range. 8. Bank Nifty was also mostly flat. 9. There was High Volatility but all within a range. 10. In the last 30 minutes nifty closed at the lowest point of the day. 11. 19700 is a good support for nifty. 12. We could be trading between 19700 to 20k for most of thud Expiry. 13. My concern is people have bought positions to their neck and most of it is overbought 14. The same is being corrected right now. 15. Today is FIN Nifty expiry and I've started trading on it during expiry days. 16. FIN Nifty is as volatile as Bank Nifty.  17. Swings here are too big and that's what makes risk - reward equation too high.  18. Risk is High and rewards are higher here. 19. I u...

Reversal from 20k (24th July 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed lower on Friday. 2. Dow Jones was flat. 3. Nasdaq was the underperformer. 4. Gift Nifty is down 30-40 Points. 5. Asian markets are mostly lower as well. 6. Friday the Nifty opened with a gap down of 200 points. 7. Within the next 10 minutes , Nifty recovered 100 points. 8. Bulls expected recovery is on the cards but Nifty started to Crack. 9. Bank Nifty was holding up Nifty for most of the while. 10. It couldn't be able to provide much of a support and Bank nifty also began to correct. 11. The issue now is market has had vertical rallies. 12. One way quick rallies so now the downfall will also be vertical. 13. When markets go up quick , they come down quicker. 14. Infy dragged the mood and also HUL didn't post extraordinary results so it was also a laggard. 15. Banks tried hard to hold the markets but couldn't. 16. Over the weekend , AU Bank and icici bank reported very good numbers. 17. These banks have already rallied a lot before results...

IT Results Shock (21st July 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed mixed Yesterday.  2. Dow Jones was higher by half a percent whereas S&P 500 was lower by half a percent.. 3. Nasdaq cracked 2% 4. Gift Nifty is down 80-100 Points. 5. Yesterday's expiry was kind of surprising. 6. There was a huge rally during 2nd half and Nifty closed just close to 20k. 7. Markets were higher for this whole week. 8. Everyday the markets went up. 9. There's profit booking generally on Fridays if markets were higher for the whole week. 10. Plus 20k is a stiff and psychological resistance. 11. Yesterday I had said that the high of yesterday would be the top for July expiry. 12. This was just a high risk - reward trade. 13. Let's see if the same happens for the expiry. 14. I somewhere sense that this rally has been overextended.  15. Also the last week there's heavy Volatility and Gamma effect is higher. 16. Infosys announced its results yesterday and its ADR was down 10%. 17. Infosys should open at least 5% gap down to...

Weekly Expiry !! (20th July 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed higher Yesterday.  2. All the indices ended in Green. 3. Asian markets are higher. 4. Gift Nifty is up 20-30 Points. 5. Today is the Reliance Industries Demerger date. 6. Today we have the weekly expiry as well. 7. So both the events are being taken place on the same day which is Today. 8. There's an interesting set up for the weekly expiry today. 9. 19700 PE among weekly options has highest open interest. 10. 19800 CE among weekly options has double the open interest compared to 19700 PE. 11. Open interest means highest number of people trading in that particular strike. 12. It basically indicates highest sellers are in that particular strike price 13. So the range is likely to be 19700 to 19800. 14. As its weekly expiry,  big moves may happen.  15. If any of these levels is crossed,  then we may expect a one way trending move. 16. Markets are extremely Bullish as of now and every Tom,  Dick & Harry is giving targets of 20k...

19500 to 20000!! (19th July 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed higher Yesterday.  2. All the indices ended in Green. 3. Asian markets are higher. 4. Gift Nifty is as flat as it can be. 5. Markets opening flat is a good sign. 6. But I doubt we would be opening flat. 7. We are opening with a gap up almost on an everyday basis. 8. In spite of Gift Nifty being flat. 9. Yesterday was a highly Volatile FIN Nifty expiry. 10. Though the markets were trading in a range,  the premiums were all over the place. 11. MTM fluctuations were too high during active trading. 12. As now we have expiry on all the days it will add up to Volatility.  13. India VIX also was higher yesterday.  14. First support for Nifty is at 19700. 15. Every 100 Points we have a support and resistance for nifty  16. 19700 - 1st support , 19600 - 2nd support & 19500 is the third support. 17. Same way every 100 points we have resistance on all higher strikes. 18. 19500 to 20k is the monthly range for nifty now. 19. Bank Nifty c...

FIN Nifty Expiry !! (18th July 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed slightly higher Yesterday.  2. All the indices closed higher. 3. Nasdaq specifically outperformed Yesterday. 4. People are shifting money towards IT Stocks because they seem to be finding more value in them in the current market conditions. 5. Asian markets are higher. 6. Gift Nifty is up 30-40 Points. 7. Yesterday the talk of the town was HDFC Banks results. 8. Hdfc bank just before results fell 7-8%. 9. After results hdfc bank witnessed huge short covering  10. Bank Nifty went up 800 points from the days low  11. Bank Nifty crossed its decisive level of 45000. 12. Both the Nifty and Bank nifty have again hit a fresh all time high Yesterday. 13. This is a fabulous rally in our Markets. 14. This rally has happened when nobody believed it to happen. 15. During the Adani fiasco I was heavily bearish on the markets for next 6 months. 16. Markets went down in heaps immediately after the Adani Saga but had recovered even much faster later on. ...

Bullish Momentum !! (17th July 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed higher on Friday. 2. All the indices closed higher. 3. Right now , Dow Futures are slightly lower. 4. Asian markets are higher. 5. Gift Nifty is indicating a very flat open. 6. Nasdaq and Indian IT Stocks have now been outperforming. 7. During Bull Markets , there is sector rotation that keeps happening. 8. Money moves from one sector in a Jiffy. 9. Investors after investing in hot stocks make those stocks so expensive that they go out of favour. 10. Money is been withdrawn from them and invested in stocks that look attractive. 11. IT Companies have also come with good results hence the Bullishness. 12. FIIs were net buyers 2650 cr where as DII's wre net sellers 800 cf. 13. Fridays last 30 minutes were quite interesting. 14. Nifty crossed 19500 and the Markets just rallied one way. 15. Thus giving a closing above 19500 levels. 16. Bank Nifty on the other is on the verge of crossing 45000. 17. 19500 should act as a good support for nifty. 18. Risk r...

Volatile Expiry !! (14th July 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed higher yesterday  2. All the indices closed higher. 3. Right now , Dow Futures are higher. 4. Asian markets are higher. 5. Gift Nifty is indicating a gap up of 80-90 points. 6. Nasdaq for the first instance after a long time outperformed Dow Jones. 7. Nasdaq closed higher by more than 1.5% 8. Whereas , Dow Jones closed marginally higher. 9. Yesterday the expiry was highly Volatile. 10. Nifty opened with a large gap up and that gap up opening was sustained. 11. During the day the gap up had a follow through and at one point Nifty and Bank Nifty were higher by more than a percent. 12. Midcaps and small caps which were buzzing during the opening hour closed deeply in Red. 13. It was a bloodbath during the 2nd half of the trading session. 14. I expect yesterday's Volatility to be because of expiry related Volatility.  15. On some expirys,  the moves get over extended due to huge option writing. 16. Also after the Bank Nifty expiry shift on We...

Breakout? (13th July 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed higher yesterday  2. All the indices closed higher. 3. Right now , Dow Futures are higher. 4. Asian markets are higher. 5. Gift Nifty is indicating a gap up of 50-60 points. 6. Yesterday the talk of the town was 28% GST being levied on fantasy betting platforms and Casinos. 7. Fantasy gaming like Dream 11 etc has destroyed the youth completely so I think it's a great policy by Government. 8. One thing is for sure , this Government is obsessed with Taxes. 9. In budget they had given the insurance shocker. 10. Now this online gaming shocker. 11. Events like these make is extremely difficult for businesses.  12. Another news was lowest CPI numbers on U.S 13. CPI Inflation came at 3% which is below expectations. 14. So it's an extremely positive news for us as a whole. 15. Nifty fell in the last 30 minutes yesterday.  16. Nifty and Bank nifty are still trading within range. 17. Do not chase stocks like Delta Corp etc which fell 30% yesterday....

Ranging Markets!! (12th July 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed higher yesterday  2. Dow Jones closed higher whereas Nasdaq closed flat. 3. Right now , Dow Futures are flat. 4. Asian markets are mixed. 5. Gift Nifty is indicating a gap up of 50-60 points. 6. All over the World , IT Stocks have been underperforming compared to other stocks. 7. In the U.S & in India the similar situation is being persisted. 8. Mid & Small caps have been outperforming the Nifty. 9. They are firing on all cylinders. 10. Majority of the portfolios are now in gains. 11. During this situation is when you got to be extra careful. 12. It's time to take 30-40% profits off the table and stay invested for remaining. 13. If you are having junk stocks which you know were for trading its better to get rid of them now. 14. Markets won't provide exit opportunities later on. 15. 19300 to 19500 range is still being held on the Nifty. 16. Yesterday as well nifty had reversed from 19500. 17. Once 19500 is crossed we would be heading hig...

Consolidation (11th July 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed higher yesterday  2. Dow Jones closed higher whereas Nasdaq closed in Red. 3. Right now , Dow Futures are slightly higher. 4. Asian markets are mixed. 5. Gift Nifty is indicating a gap down of 50-60 points. 6. Yesterday was a very flat day for the markets. 7. Nifty traded flat within a 70 point range  8. Bank nifty traded within 200 point range for the whole day. 9. As I mentioned earlier , after a huge rally consolidation is always fruitful.  10. Markets cannot keep on going higher on a daily basis. 11. Consolidation indicates Bull run is intact and has more legs to go. 12. For last 3 trading sessions nifty has been trading within 19300 to 19500. 13. Option sellers are having a good time as VIX is at multi year low  14. Option sellers who are dependent only on ranging markets will be chopped off. 15. Reason is nifty now is a 20k index almost. 16. 1% move is 200 points on Nifty. 17. 1% move is quite common in markets. 18. So now as a...

Reversal or Profit Booking? (10th July 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed higher on Friday. 2. Right now , Dow Futures are flat. 3. Asian markets are mixed 4. Gift Nifty is indicating a gap down of 50-60 points. 5. Friday was a huge Volatile day for Indian Markets. 6. Nifty opened with a large gap down opening. 7. This gap down was bought into immediately.  8. Nifty then touched 19500 during the recovery in first half. 9. Then came the sell off and it was so intense that Nifty tested 19350 and started recovering during last hour. 10. After 3 pm Nifty again fell almost 100 points. 11. According to me , it was the most Volatile day after March 2023. 12. I had mentioned previously the range for nifty is 19200 to 19500 as of now. 13. Nifty is trading within this range since many trading sessions now. 14. I expect this range to continue for a while now. 15. Fridays action accordingly to me is profit booking and not reversal as of now. 16. There was a huge rally last week in the markets. 17. So traders  would like to book...

Global Markets Crack (7th July 2023)

1. U.S Markets crashed Yesterday.  2. Right now , Dow Futures are flat. 3. Asian markets are mixed 4. Gift Nifty is indicating a gap down of 30-40 points. 5. The rally for nifty continued Yesterday as well. 6. Nifty crossed 19500 Yesterday.  7. Nifty has been in a continued upside since past 7 trading sessions. 8. Though it was a brief break above 19500 Yesterday.  9. Nifty touched 19500 level during the close of the day. 10. Nippon India Mutual funds have restricted lump sum investment into small cap fund. 11. Kotak small cap fund have also stopped accepting money into small cap fund 12. This is because they find the valuations unattractive and expensive. 13. Similar situation arose in 2017 when excess money was being poured into Mid & Small cap funds. 14. Mid & Small cap stocks were going up like crazy. 15. Many funds stopped accepting fresh inflows. 16. After few months Mid and small caps corrected by 40-50% at least. 17. Yes there is Euphoria in ma...

Roaring Markets !! (5th July 2023)

1. U.S Markets were shut Yesterday.  2. Right now , Dow Futures are flat. 3. Asian markets are mixed 4. SGX Nifty is indicating a gap up of 10 points. 5. The rally for nifty continued Yesterday as well. 6. Nifty crossed 19400 Yesterday.  7. Nifty has been in a continued upside since past 6 trading sessions. 8. As soon as 18900 was taken out there has been quick 500 point rally. 9. Now Nifty is near the resistance of 19500. 10. Markets cannot be going up in a straight line on a daily basis. 11. Vertical rallies are always led by vertical falls. 12. Such rallies ain't good for the health of stock market. 13. Markets continue to trade well if they move up gradually. 14. Yesterday the Advance - Decline ratio was in favour of declines. 15. The Declining stocks were more as compared to the Advancing stocks. 16. Mid cap index closed in red Yesterday.  17. Few index heavyweights like Bajaj Finance etc held up the index Yesterday.  18. Expect some consolidation in...

Do not chase the Market !! (4th July 2023)

1 U.S Markets closed flat yesterday.  2. Right now , Dow Futures are flat. 3. Asian markets are mixed 4. SGX Nifty is indicating a gap up of 20 points. 5. Yesterday , I didn't expect the markets to keep on rallying. 6. After a huge rally there was some expectation for profit booking/ consolidation 7. Thus is just our expectation  8. Markets always have some other plans in store. 9. Markets keep rallying yesterday as well. 10. Yesterday's rally was not that broad based. 11. NBFC Stocks led the rally yesterday. 12. To be frank , I sense Yesterday's rally was a bit overdone. 13. 19200 is a crucial support for now. 14. This level offers a good buying opportunity  15. On the upside , sky is the limit as Markets are at lifetime highs. 16. So we cannot say until when and where shall this rally sustain. 17. The way to trade now is to keep trailing stoploss if you already have long positions. 18. Those who do not have long positions should wait for a dip to enter. 19. ...

Buy on Dip (3rd June 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed higher on Friday. 2. Right now , Dow Futures are flat. 3. Asian markets are higher. 4. SGX Nifty is indicating a gap up of 20 points. 5. Friday was a total surprise day. 6. Nifty opened with a gap up close to 18100. 7. After market open there was a dip of 30-40 Points Max. 8. This dip got bought into and 19100 got crossed. 9. As soon as 19100 was crossed , Nifty touched 19200. 10. It was again a fantastic rally. 11. Last 2 trading sessions , Nifty is up 350 points. 12. All this has happened with large gap ups. 13. Bank Nifty is also in a dream run. 14. It has also been steaming ahead along with Nifty.  15. Now my advice is to wait for dips and then Nifty 16. Do not chase the market now. 17. It has already been sitting on a huge rally. 18. Chasing the gap up doesn't make risk - reward in your favour.  19. A  80-100 point dip would be a good opportunity to enter. 20. Nifty might trade between 19000 to 19300 today. 21.  stockmarketadvis...