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Showing posts from September, 2023

Hello October !! (29th Sep 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed higher yesterday.  2. Right now U.S Futures are slightly higher. 3. Gift Nifty is higher by 40-50 Points. 4. We are going to open close to 19600 today on Nifty. 5. Asian markets are higher right now. 6. All the U.S Futures are trading in Green right now. 7. There was a huge crash yesterday for expiry. 8. As soon as we opened,  markets were highly Volatile. 9. Nifty and Bank Nifty price action was all over the place. 10. For Intraday option sellers , it was a he'll. 11. Many expiry traders faced huge difficulties and losses yesterday.  12. Markers had opened with Negative global cues yesterday.  13. We kept on going lower and lower on an intraday basis  14. Nifty at one point of time even tested 19500 and reversed slightly in last 10 minutes. 15. Due to expiry issues , compulsory squaring up of positions and monthly expiry etc it got even more volatile. 16. Had it not been expiry yesterday,  we wouldn't have fallen this much...

Monthly Expiry !! (28th Sep 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed flat Yesterday.  2. Right now U.S Futures are slightly higher. 3. Gift Nifty is Flat. 4. We are going to open close to 19700 today. 5. Asian markets are mixed right now. 6. All the U.S Futures are trading in Green right now. 7. Last 2 trading sessions markets have consolidated. 8. Yesterday the markets were highly Volatile. 9. Yesterday markets opened almost flat and as soon as we opened Nifty and Bank Nifty started to Crack. 10. Nifty broke its important support of 19600 and traded lower for a while. 11. Bank Nifty went below its support of 44400 and went up to 44200. 12. Then there was a huge recovery and Nifty shot up 150 points from days low. 13. Bank Nifty shot up 300-400 Points from days low  14. Nifty closed at the highest point of the day yesterday.  15. Reliance supported the markets yesterday.  16. It wasn't much support as it was up just 1%. 17. Before yesterday,  Reliance crashed a lot so it's good that it has seemed...

Global markets Whipsaw !! (27th Sep 2023)

1. U.S Markets crashed Yesterday.  2. Right now U.S Futures are higher. 3. Gift Nifty is down 50 points. 4. We are going to open close to 19600 today. 5. Asian markets are mixed right now. 6. All the U.S Futures are trading in Green right now. 7. Last 2 trading sessions markets have consolidated. 8. Nifty was trading in a band of 19600 to 19750. 9. Bank Nifty between 44400 to 45k. 10. This consolidation was good as Markets before that were falling. 11. Consolidation takes the excesses out from the markets. 12. Gives rise to a fresher move. 13. U.S VIX was up 15% Yesterday.  14. Such was the panic yesterday in Global markets. 15. Bigger move would come in indices only when major levels have been taken out. 16. Only when Nifty either breaks 19600 or 19750 you could expect a trending move. 17. Until then markets would consolidation.  18. Trading the boundaries of the range is a good idea. 19. Look to buy at the lower end of the range and sell at the upper end of ...

Resilient Markets ((26th Sep 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed higher Yesterday.  2. Right now U.S Futures are lower. 3. Gift Nifty is flat. 4. We are going to open below 19700 today. 5. Asian markets are mixed right now. 6. All the U.S Futures are trading in Red right now. 7. Yesterday markers were slightly volatile.  8. Most of the time markets traded in a range. 9. There was some buying interest visible Yesterday  10. Good thing is after many trading sessions,  markets have stabilized.  11. Last week the markets were mostly trading lower. 12. India vix is close to 10 which is the lowest in history.  13. Consolidation is good for the markets.  14. Consolidation with Volatility is even better as it indicates markets have either topped or bottom out. 15. Seems like markets are forming a base near 19600. 16. Yesterday there was midcap expiry and 1rs calls and puts went up 20-30X. 17. These new instruments are highly risky to trade. 18. Better to stick to traditional instruments lik...

Lower Lows !! (25th September 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed lower on Friday. 2. Right now U.S Futures are higher. 3. Gift Nifty is flat. 4. We are going to open below 19700 today. 5. Asian markets are higher right now. 6. All the U.S Futures are trading in green. 7. Friday was a high volatile trading day. 8. Nifty moved in a small band of 19700 to 19800 throughout the day. 9. There were continuous swings within these 100 points range. 10. India VIX closed below 11 on Friday. 11. Option premiums are ultra low currently  12. Selling options right now isn't worth it. 13. The risk is too high and the rewards are too little. 14. Also we are in the final week on the expiry so the Gamma effect is too high. 15. PSU Banks are the star of the show currently. 16. Markets looking for value bets currently.  17. FII"s have sold more than 1000 crores on Friday. 18. This Is a very disturbing number. 19. Nifty might trade between 19900 to 20200 today. 20.  stockmarketadvisory.in

Bloodbath !! (22nd Sep 2023)

1. U.S Markets crashed yesterday  2. U.S VIX climbed 12% yesterday.  3. Gift Nifty is down 50 points. 4. We are going to open below 19700 today. 5. Asian markets are higher right now. 6. U.S Futures are higher right now. 7. Yesterday there was a bloodbath in our Markets. 8. Bank Nifty was the huge underperformer. 9. ICICI Bank led the fall yesterday. 10. I always used to say that I fear these sort of vertical rallies. 11. Nifty went up 1000 points in 2 weeks and when such vertical rally happens as and when there's a fall it's severe. 12. People were excessively Bullish when markets kept rising and this is what finally happens. 13. Now markets might consolidate for some time before fresh breakdown. 14. Nifty has support at 19700 , 19600 and 19500. 15. 19500 is the ultimate support for nifty . 16. FII's have sold for more than 3000cr yesterday  17. This is a huge sell number by the FII's. 18. Many are saying markets will reverse and go up from here. 19. My ans...

Hawkish Pause (21st Sep 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed lower yesterday  2. U.S VIX Jumped 7% yesterday.  3. Gift Nifty is down 50 points. 4. We are going to open below 19900 today. 5. 19900 is the final support on Nifty. 6. Asian markets are lower. 7. Yesterday there was a bloodbath in our Markets. 8. Hdfc bank was the culprit yesterday.  9. Due to its muted Guidance for a few quarters the stock got bashed heavily yesterday.  10. The next in the line was Reliance. 11. Both Hdfc bank and Reliance combined took Nifty lower. 12. Nifty closed exactly at the final support of 19900 yesterday.  13. This isn't the time to go long at all. 14. As I said Yesterday  , 20250 is the top for September series. 15. If you cannot short the markets as shorting requires superior skill in these volatile markets. 16. It's better to stay quiet.  17. Let the market fall and wait till it finally settles. 18. I expect last week of September to have more downside. 19. People are heavily long In this...

20250 to be the top for September series? (20th Sep 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed lower yesterday  2. Day before yesterday they had closed flat. 3. Asian Markets are mostly lower. 4. U.S VIX climbed 3% 5. Markets await the FED Decision on Interest rates. 6. Markets factoring in the negatives before entering into an event. 7. This aint the first instance this is happening.  8. On Monday as well , Nifty closed at the lowest point of the day. 9. Now one has to be careful in the markets and not expect easy money. 10. Markets will reward you only when you act as right levels. 11. Markets have already run up a lot in a short span. 12. Similar momentum cannot keep continuing forever. 13. 20100 PE has the highest open interest followed by 20000 PE among weekly Put options 14. 20200 has the highest open interest among call options. 15. I'm working with a range of 20k to 20200 on Nifty.  16. This could give me max risk reward in my favour. 17. Bank Nifty expiry is due today but the range for today's expiry is big. 18. 45400 is t...

Buy the Gap down? (18th Sep 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed lower on Friday. 2. All the indices closed almost a percent lower on Friday. 3. U.S VIX jumped 7%. 4. This was due to Fed rate hike fears citing Inflation concerns. 5. Right now U.S Futures are higher. 6. Asian markets are higher. 7. Gift Nifty is indicating a gap down of 40-50 points. 8. Nifty has shot up 1000 points in last 2 weeks. 9. This is the biggest rally by far. 10. The special thing about this rally is it was against the Global cues. 11. Everything was against India. 12. Crude prices up , Currency Depreciating,  Interest rates up , Global Inflation up. 13. FII figures in Negative , FII flows drying up etc 14. Even after all these negatives the markets kept scaling fresh highs. 15. This what makes this rally more special. 16. For weekly purpose , 20100 PE has the highest open interest and 20200 CE has the highest open Interest among Call Options. 17. We can expect a consolidation until Nifty trades within this range. 18. Bank Nifty range i...

Global Markets Rally !! (15th Sep 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed higher Yesterday 2. Right now U.S Futures are higher. 3. Asian markets are higher. 4. Gift Nifty is indicating a gap up of 40-50 points. 5. Yesterday was kind of a Volatile expiry. 6. Nifty opened with a huge gap up and then witnessed huge profit booking. 7. For the first half Markets were fairly volatile.  8. In the second half Markets recovered and the VIX Crashed. 9. Yesterday U.S VIX closed below 13. 10. Expecting India VIX to go below 11 and close to 10 going ahead. 11. Markets now are at new highs and have been making fresh highs. 12. More than the index , the extensive rally has been in the Mid and small caps space. 13. There was a hiccup in between for a day and that has been well sorted. 14. Mid & Small caps are again back to normal. 15. Now major support on Nifty turns to 20k. 16. Bank Nifty is ready to cross its all time highs. 17. Expecting a bit of profit booking after the gap up. 18. Markets could likely close at the highest point...

Weekly Expiry !! (14th Sep 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed flat Yesterday 2. Right now U.S Futures are higher. 3. Asian markets are higher. 4. Gift Nifty is indicating a gap up of 30-40 points. 5. Major news is U.S VIX fell 4% yesterday. 6. In the last 2 trading sessions , though markets were flat the premiums didn't crash for next week and monthly options. 7. This was because the VIX rose. 8. Expecting VIX to fall today and the PUT Option Premiums to come lower. 9. One can shift to next week expiry today as next week 19th September is a Market holiday. 10. It's a truncated week so the Theta decay would be fast. 11. Bank Nifty was star of the show yesterday. 12. Bank Nifty after initial hiccup closed near 46k. 13. It took Nifty higher single handedly. 14. Yesterday in the first half there was huge Volatility too in the Mid & Small Cap stocks. 15. Mid and small cap index was down 2% each at one point of time. 16. Small cap index closed higher whereas Mid caps closed flat. 17. 19900 is a strong suppo...

Should you Stay in Mid & Small caps? (13th Sep 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed slightly lower yesterday. 2. Right now U.S Futures are slightly lower. 3. Asian markets are mostly lower. 4. Gift Nifty is as flat as it can be. 5. Yesterday the talk of the town were the Mid ,& Small cap stocks. 6. As soon as Markets opened , within 30 minutes small cap index was down 4%. 7. Mid caps were down 3%. 8. Now a days due to Algo trading everything happens so quickly. 9. There was no chance for traders to cut down their Positions. 10. Nifty , BankNifty also turned volatile yesterday due to this small and midcap issue. 11. Though they both ended flat on a closing basis. 12. Mid & smallcap cap stocks have been in a huge bull run since March. 13. I kept warning that many stocks have run up too quick too fast. 14. These are equity markets and not crypto markets. 15. Here the earnings should match the underlying valuations not like crypto which is purely demand and supply. 16. The Valuations would finally come to a Mean no matter where th...

Stay Cautious ⚠️ (12th Sep 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed higher Yesterday. 2. Right now , Dow Futures are slightly lower. 3. Gift Nifty is up 70-80 points. 4. Asian markets are mixed right now. 5. Well who expected such a phenomenal rally in the stock market. 6. In just 7 trading sessions from the low of 19250 on Nifty we have now breached 20k. 7. This is a staggering and beyond expectations kind of rally. 8. Nifty at 20k previously is much more different than Nifty at 20k now. 9. Previously,  few largecap stocks kept moving higher and the broader market wasn't participating much. 10. Now the star of the show is the broader markets. 11. Major number of stocks are now higher than the levels they were at previous 20k level on Nifty. 12. Now the major question arises is what next? 13. Markets rallying continuously almost 100 points a day without going down is a cause of concern. 14. When there are vertical rallies the fall as and when they come would also be vertical. 15. At least we should consolidate or t...

Momentum to continue? (11th Sep 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed flat on Friday.  2. Right now , Dow Futures are higher. 3. Gift Nifty is up 30 points. 4. Asian markets are mostly higher. 5. Our Markets have been going through a bull phase in the short term. 6. Mid and small cap stocks are firing. 7. Nifty and Bank Nifty have covered up most of the underperformance in the last week. 8. This is a good sign. 9. Buying has also started in large cap stocks which I had said quite some time ago. 10. Bank Nifty has crossed its August high of 45000. 11. RBI has revoked its decision of incremental CRR. 12. This has caused even more positive sentiment across Banking stocks. 13. Nifty is just a percent away from its all time high of 20k. 14. U.S VIX fell 3-4% in the last trading session. 15. Expect India VIX to fall or at the least be the same. 16. Subscribe to EMS Ipo for big listing gains. 17. Usually I avoid IPO's as it causes mind diversion from my regular trading. 18. As there is a frenzy going on we should just cash ...

Markets rally against Global Trend (8th Sep 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed mixed Yesterday. 2. Right now , U.S futures are mixed. 3. Asian markets are mixed. 4. Gift Nifty is indicating a flat opening. 5. Yesterday was again a perfect V- shape rally in the markets. 6. Nifty was down in the first half and took support near 19550 and then began to rally. 7. Days like these make the intraday expiry option sellers out of the game. 8. I had stopped expiry trading long long ago. 9. It's a stupid trade strategy where you sell options for peanuts . 10. Days like yesterday wipe out all the hardwork. 11. I prefer to trade in next expiry as the decay there is higher as well. 12. Now the larger range for Nifty shifts to 19500 to 20k. 13. Expect Nifty to trade in this range for a while   14. Trend is extremely Bullish and all the dips are being bought into. 15. Today is Friday and there might be a countertrend move. 16. Markets were higher for all of the week days and today traders might look to book profits  17. We may expe...

Nifty Weekly Expiry (7th Sep 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed lower yesterday.  2. Right now , U.S futures are mixed. 3. Asian markets are mixed. 4. Gift Nifty is indicating a downward opening. 5. Yesterday was a perfect V- shape rally in the markets. 6. A V-shape rally is formed when markets fall and recover on the same. 7. Yesterday was such a kind of a day. 8. Nifty took support near 19500 and then reversed with severe intensity. 9. Total first half Markets were bleeding in red. 10. Nifty took support near 19500 and then started moving higher. 11. Post 2.40 PM there was a huge spike on Nifty and Bank Nifty. 12. This has caused a stir among the Intraday option sellers yesterday.  13. Many intraday option sellers had also placed stoploss order but there was a huge slippage. 14. In markets with not much of gap up and gap downs , Positional option selling is always better. 15. One good thing which happened yesterday was Mid and small cap have cooled off  16. Large cap stocks witnessed good buying. 17...

U.S Smallcaps Crash !! (6th Sep 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed slightly lower yesterday.  2. Right now , U.S Markets are mixed. 3. Asian markets are mixed. 4. Gift Nifty is indicating a flat opening. 5. There was a sustained rally yesterday as well in the markets. 6. Markets have continued their rally for 3 consecutive days. 7. Yesterday Nifty closed near its important level of 19600. 8. 19600 is an important resistance level for Nifty. 9. Yesterday's main action in U.S Markets was in small cap stocks. 10. The S&P Small Cap 600 sank nearly 3% for its worst day since February. The S&P Midcap 400 slumped about 2.2% and the Russell 2000 fell 2%. 11. Yesterday the U.S smallcap stocks went down like a pack of cards. 12. Indian Mid & Small caps have been going through a large rally lately. 13. Will U.S dynamics impact India needs to be seen. 14. Bank Nifty traded in a 200 point range yesterday  15. Yesterday could be termed as a sideways kind of day. 16. Lately , smart money would exit Small and mid...

Markets on a roll !! (5th September 2023)

1. U.S Markets were shut Yesterday.  2. Right now , Dow futures are marginally lower. 3. Asian markets are lower. 4. Gift Nifty is indicating a flat opening. 5. September has started with a Bang. 6. Markets have continued their rally yesterday as well. 7. For 2 consecutive days , markets have started going higher. 8. FII's have sold more than 3000 crore yesterday.  9. In spite of the same we kept on moving higher. 10. Mid and small cap stocks have been flying. 11. This financial year , Nifty is up 12% whereas Mid and small cap stocks are up by more than 30% each on an average. 12. Such a huge divergence in the Markets. 13. When Penny stocks start to go up you should be worried. 14. Now is the time where all kind of stocks are moving higher.  15. Any XYZ stock you buy , it's providing profitability for you. 16. I expect in the coming days for the largecaps to outperform. 17. Money and sector rotation will start happening and value buying will begin to emerge. 1...

September starts with a Bang !! (4th September 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed mixed on Friday. 2. Right now , Dow futures are marginally lower. 3. Asian markets are higher. 4. Gift Nifty is up 15-20 points. 5. September has started with a Bang. 6. Markets opened on Friday and just kept going higher. 7. Nifty moved higher 200 points from day low. 8. The Elephant , Bank Nifty reversed 700 points from day low. 9. It was a broad based rally on Friday. 10. The Mid and Small caps along with large caps joined the party.  11. First few trading sessions generally decide the trend for the Month. 12. In August series , Markets went lower in the first few days and expiry happened at lowest level. 13. September started with a Positive tone. 14. Unless any negative news pops up , this could be a Positive month.  15. The resistance level for nifty now is 19500 and 19600. 16. Support levels come at 19200. 17. 19200 - 19600 is the range in which Nifty is swinging. 18. Bank Nifty reversed exactly from support levels of 43800 on Friday. 1...

Hello September !! (1st September 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed mixed yesterday.  2. Right now , Dow futures are marginally higher.  3. Asian markets are higher. 4. Gift Nifty is up 30-40 points. 5. After rallying for 4 consecutive trading sessions,  U.S Markets closed flat yesterday.  6. U.S VIX is now below 14. 7. Yesterday was one of the trickiest expiry. 8. Markets were all over the place yesterday.  9. Nifty and Bank Nifty closed near the major support levels yesterday.  10. Everybody is now ignoring large caps & are into mid & Small caps. 11. Yesterday Nifty and Bank Nifty closed lower while mid & Small caps hit fresh all time high.  12. This trend has already continued for long but it does not have enough legs to hold on. 13. Some stocks with no fundamentals are going through the roof. 14. One should be careful in that space now. 15. Though the major indices are weak , markets are not worth shorting now. 16. Risk - reward in shorting markets right now ain't worth...