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Showing posts from October, 2023

19200 on the Cards? (31st Oct 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed higher yesterday.  2. All the indices closed higher. 3. Right now , U.S Futures are flat. 4. U.S VIX closed 8% lower Yesterday.  5. Dow Jones rallied 500 points yesterday.  6. U.S Markets have also corrected significantly from their highs. 7. All the Global Markets now seem to have coming out of the War zone. 8. 19200 is a stiff resistance for us. 9. This was because before 19200 broke around a week ago,  this low was held for around 4 months. 10. Crossing of this level of 19200 will turn markets Bullish. 11. Markers were highly Volatile yesterday.  12. Markets didn't go up in a straight line yesterday.  13. There was a massive fall in the first hour which got bought into in the 2nd half. 14. There are still significant shorts in the system. 15. A good thing about Yesterday's rally was the large caps joined the party after so long. 16. Last 3-4 months only Mid and small caps witnessed rallies. 17. Large caps underperformed ...

Have we bottomed out? (30th Oct 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed mixed yesterday.  2. S&P 500 and Dow Jones closed lower whereas Nasdaq closed higher. 3. Right now , U.S Futures are higher. 4. U.S VIX closed below 20 on Friday. 5. Markets have corrected all the way from 20200 to 18850. 6. Friday was a relief rally for the Bulls. 7. Reliance came out with its set of numbers over the weekend and the numbers look good. 8. Reliance has been underperforming and dragging nifty. 9. Now it's close to the lower point of the range. 10. So it's a good risk - reward trade setting up as well for Reliance.  11. Gift Nifty is up 70-80 Points. 12. Asian markets are mostly higher. 13. Expect 18850 to be a near term bottom.  14. Once 19200 is crossed , everyone would turn Bullish. 15. We have bought 19200 monthly calls on Friday. 16. We look to hold the same unless we expect something negative to happen. 17. Once these monthly calls turn ITM then the momentum would be huge. 18. Safe traders can sell puts below 18850...

Welcome November !! (27th Oct 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed lower yesterday.  2. Right now , U.S Futures are higher. 4. U.S VIX closed above 21 Yesterday.  5. Gift Nifty is up 70-80 Points. 6. Asian markets are all higher. 7. Yesterday was one of the worst expiry of recent times. 8. Nifty closed at the lowest level of past 6 months. 9. 19000 was a very very critical level for Nifty. 10. Yesterday , 19000 got broken quite easily. 11. As soon as 19000 got broken , there was a free fall in the markets. 12. Nifty finally took support near the levels of 18850 yesterday.  13. FII's sold a Bullion dollars yesterday.  14. 7700 crores was the FII selling number yesterday.  15. This is some insane selling by the FII's. 16. DII's bought for 6600 crores yesterday.  17. If the DII's wouldn't have stepped in , we would've been much lower by now. 18. This Crash provides an Excellent opportunity for the long term investors to buy good Quality stocks at reasonable valuations. 19. This is a correctio...

Ultra Bearish Markets !! (26th Oct 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed lower yesterday.  2. Day before yesterday,  markets closed lower. 3. Right now , U.S Futures are lower. 4. U.S VIX closed 6% higher yesterday.  5. Gift Nifty is down 70-80 Points. 6. Asian markets are al down. 7. Nifty is likely to open near 19040. 8. 19200 was a very very critical level for Nifty now. 9. Yesterday , 19200 got broken quite easily. 10. As soon as 19200 got broken , there was a free fall in the markets  11. Nifty kept moving lower and lower during the day. 12. Now , next support for markets is at 19000. 13. If this breaks , then final support is at 18880. 14. We have resistance at 19200 , 19350 and 19500. 15. 19200 calls have been sold heavily Yesterday.  16. Many of the large caps have come at attractive valuations now. 17. HDFC Bank and Reliance are close to bottoming out. 18. Froth still lies in the Mid and small cap space. 19. Mid and small cap space was over heated in the past many months. 20. Now , the Valua...

19200 - Make or Break? (25th Oct 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed higher yesterday.  2. Day before yesterday,  markets closed flat. 3. Right now , U.S Futures are lower. 4. U.S VIX closed 6% lower yesterday.  5. Gift Nifty is up 20-30 Points. 6. Asian markets are mixed. 7. Nifty is likely to open near 19300. 8. 19200 is a very very critical level for Nifty now. 9. It's a very important level because 19200 has been holding since 4 months. 10. It has been tested 3-4 times but couldn't get broken. 11. Mondays last hour crash was something that has not happened since a long while. 12. In 2022 , markets were volatile and in last hour sudden moves used to come. 13. On Monday , markets broke all the key important supports in a jiffy. 14. India VIX is now near 10. 15. The VIX is almost at its all time low. 16. This indicates that option selling isn't advisable.  17. Option buying In a low VIX environment proves of a better alternative.  18. Mid and small caps correction was fierce. 19. Nifty might tra...

Volatility Picking up !! (23rd Oct 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed lower on Friday. 2. All the U.S indices closed lower on Friday and U.S VIX closed above 20. 3. Right now , U.S Futures are higher. 4. U.S VIX above 20 indicates there is fear in the markets. 5. Gift Nifty is down 40-50 Points. 6. Asian markets are mixed. 7. Nifty is likely to open below its important support of 19500. 8. If Nifty has opened below 19500 , it will definitely recover and test 19500. 9. If 19500 is crossed then we may once again expect rangebound movement. 10. Else we may expect some Bearishness in markets. 11. Right now , all the factors are negative.  12. Crude oil and Bond yields moving higher. 13. FII's are selling & Global war Escalations. 14. We have had a lot of run up in the markets recently. 15. So a correction will be good for the markets. 16. If we do not hold 19500 on Nifty then we will be heading towards 19350. 17. 44000 is the make or break level for Bank Nifty. 18. Bank Nifty tried to cross 44k on Thursday but couldn...

19850 - Stiff Resistance (18th Oct 2023)

1. U.S Markets flat Yesterday.  2. All the U.S indices closed very flat yesterday.  3. Right now , U.S Futures are lower. 4. U.S VIX was up 3-4% Yesterday.  5. Gift Nifty is down 20-30 Points. 6. Asian markets are mixed. 7. Yesterday markets opened with a huge gap up and then stayed flat throughout the day  8. There was absolutely no movement at all. 9. This has been the whole scenario in October series. 10. Markets are opening with a huge gap up / gap down and staying flat throughout the day. 11. Huge gap up / gap down is max 100 points. 12. Not more than that. 13. October looks like a consolidation month for the markets. 14. After the big moves in September markets are in consolidation Mode. 15. 19850 is a stiff resistance and 19600 is a stiff support. 16. Within this band nifty is moving. 17. Banks are starting to outperform.  18. Yesterday HDFC Bank outperformed in the banks. 19. Nifty might trade between 19600 to 19850 today. 20.  stockmark...

U.S VIX falls 10% (17th Oct 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed higher Yesterday.  2. All the U.S indices closed a percent higher yesterday.  3. Right now , U.S Futures are lower. 4. U.S VIX crashed 10% Yesterday.  5. Gift Nifty is up 70-80 points. 6. Asian markets are mixed. 7. Yesterday the markets were as flat as they could be. 8. There was absolutely no movement at all. 9. Nifty for the whole day was within 50-60 point range. 10. Bank Nifty was slightly underperforming yesterday.  11. Yesterday HDFC bank results were announced and it was pretty difficult to analyze It due to merger complications  12.  13.  14. This was what I could make out from the results and give a true picture to the Blog readers. 15. Hdfc bank ADR closed slightly more than a percent higher in U.S Market. 16. Expect it to be higher today. 17. Hdfc bank is the most weighted stock of Bank Nifty so if this goes higher Bank Nifty would go higher. 18. Nifty is likely to open close to the ...

U.S VIX up 15% (16th Oct 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed lower on Friday. 2. In the first half they were trading slightly higher. 3. In the second half , markets kept on moving lower. 4. U.S VIX jumped 15% on Friday. 5. Gift Nifty is down 30-40 points. 6. Asian markets are mixed. 7. The way VIX is slowly inching higher , shows that Markets are expecting something big to happen. 8. Big in the sense , some big moves or some news might come in suddenly. 9. As of now , markets are in a range and are trading with heavy Volatility.  10. Nifty is trading within a tight range of 19350 to 19850. 11. Expect this range to continue for the Month unless any fresh trigger pops up in the market. 12. The rally in mid and small caps also seems to be fading out. 13. The way each and every stock kept going higher will now come to an end. 14. History has said that Markets go with lot of optimism pre Diwali. 15. Ultimately,  markets top out on Diwali. 16. Plus , elections are also coming up this time around. 17. This wo...

Consolidation !! (13th Oct 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed lower Yesterday.  2. In the first half they were trading flat. 3. In the second half , markets inched lower. 4. U.S VIX jumped 6% Yesterday.  5. Gift Nifty is down 80 points.  6. Asian markets are mixed. 7. Yesterday was the most easiest expiry for option sellers. 8. For option buyers it was one of the most boring ones. 9. Nifty for whole of the day traded within just 40 point range. 10. All the premiums crashed massively yesterday.  11. Yesterday india VIX too inched lower. 12. As said nifty is in a range of 19350 to 19850. 13. It's moving all over the place but within this range itself. 14. Looks like for the rest of the expiry too this will be the range. 15. October has been a consolidation month upto now. 16. Which is actually good for the Bulls. 17. Markets have run up a lot in September so consolidation is always good. 18. Currently I'm selling puts below 19350 and calls above 20000. 19. Adjusting them as and when market moves ...

Niftt Weekly Expiry !! (12th Oct 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed higher Yesterday.  2. In the first half they were trading negative. 3. In the second half , markets inched higher. 4. U.S VIX Crashed yesterday.  5. U.S ViX is now below 16. 6. U.S VIX below 15 is a comfortable zone. 7. What a turnaround this was after the Monday fall. 8. On Monday if you may remember that Markets closed at the lowest point of the day. 9. India VIX up 10% 10. In next 2 trading sessions after Monday   nifty shot up 300 points. 11. All the shorts have been taken to cleaners. 12. Many people carried shorts from Monday expecting further war news. 13. All this people got trapped. 14. 19800-19850 is a resistance zone for nifty. 15. 19700 is a good support for the day. 16. This could become a good ranging trade to buy at 19700 and short near 19850. 17. Of course with strict stoploss. 18. Bank Nifty has a very important support at 43800 which has been held multiple times. 19. Nifty might trade between 19650 to 19900 today. 2...

Geo - Political Instability !! (10th Oct 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed higher Yesterday.  2. In the first half they were trading negative. 3. In the second half , markets inched higher. 4. India VIX Jumped 10% Yesterday  5. Volatility and fear was at its extreme peak 6. Right now U.S Futures are lower. 7. Gift Nifty is higher by 100 points.  8. We opened with a huge gap down yesterday.  9. We are set to open with a huge gap up today  10. Expect India VIX to go down today. 11. Unless Iran jumps into the conflict this Israel - Hamas conflict has not much impact. 12. If Iran jumps into the same then this could be a pro - longed conflict. 13. If one remembers , during Russia - Ukraine war Nifty was down 15% from all time highs. 14. As soon as was settled , Nifty hit fresh All time high. 15. History has taught us thar declines due to Geo political stress is rewarding in the long run 16. There's nothing to worry If market goes lower. 17. You can consider it as a festive sale and add your favorite stocks....

Israel - Hamas Conflict!! (9th Oct 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed higher on Friday. 2. Right now U.S Futures are lower. 3. Gift Nifty is flat. 4. We are likely to open quite flat today. 5. Most probably at the levels we closed yesterday.  6. Markets were in a Consolidation phase and were just starting to go higher. 7. In between all this we witness News of Israel - Hamas conflicts. 8. This has made global markets crash 9. Israel stock market was down more than 6% yesterday.  10. One cannot say for how much time is this going to continue. 11. Nor how big will this be impacted. 12. In a war situation trying to analyze these things will never work 13. Good opportunity for long term investors to accumulate on dips. 14. One thing is for sure , both these countries cannot keep fighting for longer periods. 15. This month we also have many results coming up. 16. Key Earnings Next Week   TCS 11-Oct-23  HCL TECH 12-Oct-23  HDFC AMC 12-Oct-...

Consolidation Continues !! (6th Oct 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed flat yesterday.  2. Right now U.S Futures are flat. 3. Gift Nifty is down 10-20 Points. 4. We are likely to open quite flat today. 5. Most probably at the levels we closed yesterday.  6. Markets are in a consolidation phase. 7. This Consolidation is happening with some Volatility  8. Asian markets are all trading mixed. 9. All the U.S Futures are trading flat right now. 10. Yesterday was a decent expiry day. 11. Markets traded almost in a range and Consolidated throughout.  12. Also the VIX fell below 11 yesterday.  13. Now the premiums are somewhat meaningful than they were at the start of October. 14. Expect premiums to crash in coming trading sessions. 15. Consolidation indicates markets are bracing themselves for the next big move. 16. More the Consolidation,  more powerful will be the next move. 17. The bigger range for Nifty is 19200 to 19800. 18. Below 19200 I will turn bearish and above 19800 I would turn Bullish....

Consolidation !! (5th Oct 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed higher yesterday.  2. Right now U.S Futures are lower. 3. Gift Nifty is down 20-30 Points. 4. We are going to open close to 19430 today on Nifty. 5. Asian markets are all trading mixed. 6. All the U.S Futures are trading in Red right now. 7. Yesterday our Markets broke important support of 19500. 8. As soon as 19500 was broken , markets kept going lower and lower. 9. Markets finally found support near 19350 and showed signs of recovery. 10. Last 1 hour Markets recovered from lows and closed above 19400. 11. U.S VIX Crashed 6% Yesterday. 12. VIX crash indicates stability in the markets in coming time. 13. Bank Nifty almost went close to final support levels of 43800. 14. Bank Nifty held its major support of 43800. 15. Nifty is far away from major support of 19200. 16. 19200 was the October low on Nifty so its a major support zone. 17. Large caps have now started performing in the markets. 18. HDFC Bank which everybody was selling showed signs of bot...

Global Markets Negative!! (4th Oct 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed lower yesterday.  2. Right now U.S Futures are lower. 3. Gift Nifty is down 80-100 Points. 4. We are going to open close to 19430 today on Nifty. 5. Asian markets are all trading lower. 6. All the U.S Futures are trading in Red right now. 7. Yesterday was the easiest of FIN Nifty expiry. 8. All the Option sellers made extraordinary returns on Yesterday's expiry. 9. U.S VIX crosses 20 Yesterday.  10. Expect India VIX to cross 15 soon  11. Before Elections expect India VIX to cross 20-25 range. 12. This isn't the time to sell long term options. 13. Citing such low premiums and a potential increase in VIX in future. 14. Markets were highly overcooked and were running ahead of their fundamentals. 15. A good correction will bring markets back on track. 16. Hdfc Bank has made fresh lows yesterday.  17. Market participants are now ignoring Quality and buying Mid & Small caps most of which are junk. 18. Slowly the cycle would change. 19....