Skip to main content

Posts

Showing posts from December, 2023

Finally VIX Cools Off !! (29th Dec 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed mixed Yesterday.  2. Right now , Dow Futures are flat. 3. Asian markets are mixed. 4. Gift Nifty is indicating a very flat opening. 5. U.S VIX was up by less than a percent yesterday.  6. Yesterday India VIX in the final 30 minutes crashed by 3%. 7. India VIX at one point of time was above 16 Yesterday.  8. Yesterday it closed below 16. 9. This is a good news for the Bulls as well as Option sellers. 10. Reason it's a good news for the Bulls is because lower the VIX lower the Volatility.  11. Lower Volatility is good for steady markets. 12. Higher VIX attracts roller coaster moves. 13. Now , the largecaps and fund managers favorite stocks have started buying perform. 14. Now large caps have been outperforming the Mid & Small caps. 15. Yesterday in spite of all the indices closing more than half a percent in green , many of the portfolios were in red. 16. This is due to the advance decline ratio was in favour of declines yesterday....

Blue Sky Zone !! (28th Dec 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed slightly higher Yesterday.  2. Right now , Dow Futures are higher. 3. Asian markets are higher. 4. Gift Nifty is indicating a gap up opening of 80-90 Points. 5. U.S VIX crashed 4% Yesterday.  6. Yesterday India VIX was up by 7%. 7. India VIX is now above 15. 8. If India VIX doesn't fall in next 2-3 trading sessions , then it's a caution sign 9. Expecting VIX to go down by 2-4% today. 10. Yesterday in the first half Nifty touched all time high of 21600 and reversed. 11. Then took support near 21500 & Post 3 pm shot up 100 points. 12. This shows the Bullishness of the markets. 13. We are in a big uptrend markets. 14. In such type of markets money is made by just holding on to your positions. 15. 21600 which was previously a resistance is now a support. 16. Yesterday there was highest open interest for 21600 CE. 17. Many were trapped yesterday and those who didn't exit yesterday will be trapped big today. 18. As I pointed out yesterday tha...

Low Volumes !! (27th Dec 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed higher yesterday  2. Right now , Dow Futures are flat. 3. Asian markets are mixed. 4. Gift Nifty is indicating a gap up opening of 40-50 Points. 5. U.S VIX was slightly lower Yesterday.  6. Yesterday some unusual stuff was witnessed relating to India VIX. 7. Yesterday the markets were trading higher and also the India VIX was up 7%. 8. Usually when markets go up India VIX comes down. 9. Maybe because of Russia - Ukraine attacks going on people are fearful. 10. That fear got reflected in the VIX. 11. Unless Bank Nifty participates in the rally , Nifty won't cross its resistance.  12. Bank Nifty went close to 48k for 7 times. 13. Couldn't close above 48k even for once. 14. So 48k for Bank Nifty is a big resistance zone. 15. Once Bank Nifty has crossed 48k then we can witness 50k. 16. If Bank Nifty goes higher,  it will take Nifty higher with itself. 17. Only 2 days left for expiry now. 18. The trend is up but markets won't go up in a s...

Consolidation?? (26th Dec 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed flat on Friday 2. Right now , Dow Futures are higher. 3. Asian markets are mixed. 4. Gift Nifty is indicating a gap up opening of 20-30 Points. 5. U.S VIX hasn't changed much from Friday. 6. India VIX if goes once below 11 then Volatility will subside. 7. Last week of December is always  subdued. 8. This is because there is a holiday mood for FII's. 9. Christmas and New Year week for FII's so they be away from markets. 10. India as well there is a holiday mood so the volumes dry up. 11. In these dry volumes there is a possibility of fake breakout or breakdown. 12. Not getting trapped in the same is the key. 13. We have only 3 trading days for expiry now. 14. Option premiums are comparatively better this time around. 15. There are many events coming by. 16. Union budget in Feb and elections 17. These are 2 very big events for the markets. 18. So not expecting VIX to go significantly lower given the events to occur. 19. 21000 to 21600 is the ...

Volatility at all time high !! (22nd Dec 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed higher yesterday  2. Right now , Dow Futures are lower. 3. Asian markets are lower. 4. Gift Nifty is indicating a gap up opening of 60-70 Points. 5. U.S VIX was slightly lower Yesterday. 6. India VIX also fell about 2% Yesterday.  7. Markets have been trading with some insane Volatility in last 2 trading sessions. 8. Markets crashed on Wednesday inspite of no negative news. 9. Markets made a fresh all time high on Wednesday and everything looked good. 10. Suddenly out of nowhere in the 2nd half Markets crashed. 11. Yesterday markets opened lower near 21k and immediately started to recover. 12. Nifty & Bank nifty both closed at the highest point of the day yesterday.  13. The new Corona Virus variant has caused panic among traders. 14. Covid is history now. 15. We don't have to panic over it and over new variants  16. We have dealt & mitigated it very well during 2020. 17. Stock Market declines due to Covid is a perfect buying...

21500 breached today? (20th Dec 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed higher yesterday  2. Right now , Dow Futures are flat. 3. Asian markets are mixed. 4. Gift Nifty is indicating a gap up opening of 80-90 Points. 5. U.S VIX was down 2% Yesterday. 6. India VIX also fell 3% Yesterday. 7. Friday & Monday the VIX rose Unexpectedly  8. Yesterday some correction in VIX is a good sign. 9. Yesterday Nifty made a low around 21350 and a high of close to 21500. 10. From the last 2 days , markets have been trading within this range. 11. 21500 CE has the highest open interest in monthly options. 12. Many traders have sold 21500 CE heavily. 13. These could be trapped at open and markets could inch higher. 14. Support is at 21k for Nifty. 15. Wednesdays are generally not straight trading days. 16. There is a big higher Volatility in the markets on Wednesdays.  17. Markets might give you a dip in first half & that would be a buying opportunity.  18. The Global trend is upwards so eventually the markets will ...

Consolidation!! (19th Dec 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed slightly higher yesterday  2. Right now , Dow Futures are flat. 3. Asian markets are mixed. 4. Gift Nifty is indicating a very flat Opening. 5. U.S VIX was up Yesterday by 2%. 6. India VIX also rose 6% Yesterday. 7. India VIX has slowly risen above 13. 8. Option premiums are slightly higher right now than before. 9. Before , India VIX was lower since past many months. 10. Now gradually its inching higher. 11. This may be because markets have run up quite fast. 12. All the short sellers & call sellers are in deep trouble.  13. So there is quite extreme fear among call sellers. 14. We have major 2 events coming up next year of 2024. 15. First event is of Budget and second is of Central Elections. 16. Before major events VIX shoots up. 17. Before Elections VIX has always shot up above 30. 18. So higher VIX upto Elections is a new normal now. 19. Yesterday Nifty traded in a flat range of 20400 to 20500. 20. Expecting this to continue for some ...

Momentum to Continue? (15th Dec 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed slightly higher yesterday  2. Right now , Dow Futures are slightly higher. 3. Asian markets are higher 4. Gift Nifty is indicating a gap up of 70-80 Points. 5. U.S VIX was slightly higher yesterday.  6. Yesterday markets opened above 21k and gained momentum from there. 7. This shows that Markets in a Bullish Momentum. 8. 21200 was likely a resistance for Yesterday and markets closed exactly near the same. 9. Bank Nifty was the star of the show yesterday.  10. Bank Nifty rallied more than 1.5% Yesterday.  11. When Bank Nifty rallies , it helps Nifty to rally and automatically takes it higher. 12. Markets In the short run have run up a lot and that too without break. 13. There is one way rally from 18850 to 21200 Nifty. 14. This isn't actually so good for the markets. 15. The fall as and when it comes will also be fast and furious. 16. Markets spending some time and consolidating will add on to the strength of the Bulls in the long ter...

FED Signals to cut Borrowing Rates (14th Dec 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed higher yesterday  2. Right now , Dow Futures are higher. 3. Asian markets are higher 4. Gift Nifty is indicating a gap up of 200+ Points. 5. U.S VIX was slightly higher yesterday.  6. Today is weekly expiry & a gap up 200+ Points is just too huge. 7. There is highest open interest at 21k Weekly CE as on Yesterday.  8. Now all of these Call writers would be trapped at open. 9. Yesterday the FED Indicated that there would be 2 rate cuts in 2024 & also they haven't changed interest rates currently. 10. Markets have loved this commentary.  11. Lowering of interest rates means lower loan costs. 12. Lower loan costs indicates higher liquidity & higher profits for companies. 13. Interest rates were kept high to tackle the Inflation.  14. Now when the Inflation is in check & at Central Banks target they can afford to cut the rates. 15. RBI most often just follows what the FED does. 16. Also most of the Central Banks work...

Inflation & IIP numbers released !! (13th Dec 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed higher yesterday  2. Right now , Dow Futures are higher. 3. Asian markets are higher 4. Gift Nifty is indicating a gap up of 50-60 Points. 5. U.S VIX fell by almost 6% Yesterday.  6. Yesterday markets were Jittery due to Inflation numbers to be released  7. Nifty moved within a 100 points range of 20900 to 21000 8. Bank Nifty underperformed yesterday  9. Our Inflation and IIP numbers were excellent & this would be Positive for the markets. 10. U.S Inflation number also came as expected. 11. So no negative surprises have emerged from key numbers.  12. Expecting markets to cross 21k soon & move higher. 13. Also expecting India vix to go below 12 this week. 14. Option Premiums are already too low currently and expecting them to go even lower. 15. Once 21k is crossed on Nifty then we would be heading to 21200 in almost no time. 16. Nifty cannot go higher without Bank Nifty support. 17. Bank Nifty should provide the initial p...

Consolidation is on (12th Dec 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed higher yesterday  2. Right now , Dow Futures are mixed. 3. Asian markets are mixed. 4. Gift Nifty is indicating a gap up of 50-60 Points. 5. U.S VIX went higher by almost 3% Yesterday.  6. Yesterday was a consolidation day as we expected. 7. Nifty in the first half crossed 21k but couldn't sustain 8. Then nifty corrected to 20930 thereabouts 9. So it was a narrow 100 point range yesterday for nifty. 10. Bank Nifty was trading volatile throughout the day. 11. Nifty also traded with heavy Volatility yesterday.  12. FII's have become net buyers after the elections.  13. The same happens everytime. 14. Just before Elections,  FII's pull out money and when they see  results as satisfactory. 15. These FII's once they see certainty again start buying. 16. Bank Nifty has been outperforming nifty since a long time. 17. Yesterday however just for a day Bank Nifty performed more than Nifty. 18. Expecting markets to break 21k soon 19. ...

Consolidation !! (11th Dec 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed mixed on Friday. 2. Right now , Dow Futures are mixed. 3. Asian markets are mixed. 4. Gift Nifty is indicating a gap down of 20-30 Points. 5. U.S VIX went slightly lower on Friday. 6. Yesterday was a consolidation day as we had expected. 7. Markets after rallying need some time to breathe. 8. This consolidation is good for the long term prospects of our Markets 9. If there is a vertical rally then as and when there is a fall , it would be vertical as well. 10. Friday there was RBI meeting and the decision was status Quo. 11. There were no change in the rates as expected. 12. Markets went into profit booking after the meeting. 13. Bank Nifty has started to outperform than Nifty. 14. Financial stocks have been trading at low valuations compared to historical valuations. 15. Value buying is emerging in that space. 16. Markets once crossed 21k would head towards 21.5k. 17. Support is at 20800. 18. Fridays low of 20850 is a good support to work with  19...

RBI Policy !! (8th Dec 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed higher yesterday. 2. Right now , Dow Futures are mixed. 3. Asian markets are mixed. 4. Gift Nifty is indicating a gap up of 20-30 Points. 5. U.S VIX went slightly lower yesterday.  6. Yesterday was a consolidation day as we had expected. 7. Markets after rallying need some time to breathe. 8. This consolidation is good for the long term prospects of our Markets 9. If there is a vertical rally then as and when there is a fall , it would be vertical as well. 10. Today we have the all important RBI policy. 11. Expectation is that there wouldn't be any change in the interest rates. 12. Major emphasis would be given on the Commentary given by Shaktikanta Das. 13. Slight possibility of a rate cut as well today. 14. If by chance there's a rate cut then there is a huge possibility of markets to rally. 15. Since the interest rate cut would indicate that inflation has peaked out. 16. Possibility of a rate cut is very low as RBI follows what the U.S fed d...

Time to Consolidate!! (7th Dec 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed lower yesterday  2. Right now , Dow Futures are mixed. 3. Asian markets are lower. 4. Gift Nifty is indicating a gap down of 30-40 points. 5. U.S VIX went slightly higher Yesterday.  6. Yesterday was a kind of a distribution day. 7. Money flow in the short term has been shifting to value driven stocks  8. These value driven stocks are mostly the large caps. 9. Finance space has started to attract value buying now. 10. Specially the Banking space. 11. This is what happens in a classic Bull Market. 12. There is sector rotation and money flows from one sector to another. 13. Which we call it as Sectoral Rotation.  14. FII's have started to buy in Indian Markets. 15. They have been net sellers in last 2 years. 16. Now , due to upgradation of India overseas by many credit rating agencies they are looking to come back. 17. 21,000 is a psychological resistance as its a new round number. 18. 47k for Bank Nifty is almost the same. 19. Expecti...

Large Caps outperform (6th Dec 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed mixed yesterday.  2. Right now , Dow Futures are flat. 3. Asian markets are lower. 4. Gift Nifty is indicating a gap up 30-40 points. 5. U.S VIX fell Yesterday.  6. Yesterday was a kind of a distribution day. 7. Money flow in the short term has been shifting to value driven stocks  8. These value driven stocks are mostly the large caps. 9. Also in the large caps the finance space is on a roll. 10. Bank Nifty now has also hit all time high 11. So the Banks which were also lagging behind have joined the party. 12. This Bank Nifty is also taking Nifty higher. 13. FII's have begun buying now. 14. When FII's buy they don't check where the market is etc. 15. They just keep ok buying. 16. Hdfc bank is now up more than 6% just in last 1 week. 17. Nifty now has strong support at 20700. 18. This rally cannot go on in a straight line so we are facing Dips. 19. This continues to be a buy on Dip market. 20. Nifty might trade between 20700 to 21000 21....

Momentum to Continue ? (5th Dec 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed slightly lower yesterday.  2. Right now , Dow Futures are flat. 3. Asian markets are lower. 4. Gift Nifty is indicating a gap up 70-80 points. 5. U.S VIX climbed 3% Yesterday.  6. Yesterday was a Bang on day for the markets. 7. Specially for the Bank Nifty. 8. Bank Nifty was up almost 4% Yesterday.  9. Nifty was up 2%. 10. 90 Points gain in Nifty came out of only 2 stocks. 11. Hdfc bank & ICICI Bank. 12. These were laggards since the last 1 year. 13. Now these have started to move and how. 14. FII's and DII's both were net buyers Yesterday.  15. FII's bought for more than 4000 crores. 16. Markets are now pricing in the same Government.  17. This was totally unexpected for the markets as the exit polls etc nowhere predicted the same. 18. We will continue to be a buy on dips market. 19. We are trading at all time highs so the best way to trade this market is to be long unless there is a sign of reversal. 20. Bullish on Bank Ni...

Markets love Election results (4th Dec 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed higher on Friday. 2. Right now , Dow Futures are lower. 3. Asian markets are mixed. 4. Gift Nifty is indicating a gap up of 250 points plus. 5. This gap up is quite Unbelievable.  6. This is because of clean sweep by the BJP in major states. 7. BJP has won 3 out of 5 state elections yesterday where markets were expecting 2 or maybe 1 itself  8. This was not priced in by the markets and hence such positive reaction by the markets. 9. Yesterday's victory also gives an reasonable assurance relating to the Central state elections. 10. Yesterday's results were kind of Semi Final events . 11. BJP won it decisively. 12. So they have tremendous advantage to win 2024 central elections. 13. I'm not interested at all in Politics. 14. I see politics only through stock market point of view. 15. Markets don't like Unstable Government. 16. They prefer Stable Government which is already continuing. 17. Next 5 years the bull run is expected to continue....

All time high today? (1st Dec 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed higher Yesterday. 2. Right now , U.S Futures are trading flat. 3. U.S VIX closed below 13 Yesterday.  4. Asian markets are mostly higher. 5. Gift Nifty is indicating an opening close to all time highs today. 6. Yesterday was a roller coaster kind of expiry. 7. Nifty first opening higher and witnessed profit booking , trading with huge Volatility within a Range and then finally closing at the highest point of the day. 8. November was a spectacular series for the Bulls. 9. Nifty scaled up from the recent lows of 18850 to nearly close to all time highs in November.  10. December , on the other hand will largely be depended on the election results and macro factors. 11. There is currently a very positive news to start off the December series. 12. That is the Q2 GDP data that has been announced yesterday.  13. Q2 GDP data on all fronts was quite excellent. 14. All the sectors including Manufacturing largely showed great strength. 15. Our econo...