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Showing posts from September, 2024

Rate Cut on Radar !! (16th Sept 2024)

1. U.S Markets closed higher on Friday. 2. All the indices closed higher. 3. U.S VIX was down 4% on Friday. 4. Asian Markets are mostly higher. 5. Gift Nifty is indicating a gap up of 50 points. 6. Friday was a ranging day for Indian Markets.  7. Markets were flat & trading within half a percent range. 8. Friday was the day of Mid & Small cap stocks. 9. Mid & Small cap stocks outperformed on Friday. 10. This Is a typical Bull market. 11. Everyday one or the other indice is leasing the rally. 12. When Nifty and Bank Nifty rose on Thursday,  mid and small caps were almost flat. 13. On Friday when Nifty & Bank nifty were flat,  Mid and small caps have shined. 14. Currently it's a buy on Dip market. 15. Do not expect high momentum rally. 16. Markets will be slow and trending. 17. It will be testing the patience. 18. Stay with the trend because one doesn't know when you will be rewarded. 19. Sudden moves might come anytime without you being prepared. 20.

Momentum to Continue? (13th Sep 2024)

1. U.S Markets closed higher yesterday.  2. All the indices closed higher. 3. U.S VIX was down 4% Yesterday.  4. Asian Markets are higher. 5. Gift Nifty is indicating a gap up of 50 points. 6. Yesterday was a crazy crazy expiry day. 7. Markets were highly Volatile until 2 pm yesterday.  8. Nifty was trading all over the place. 9. Then came the mother of all short covering tallies. 10. In 2 minutes,  Nifty was up 150 points. 11. Nifty actually went up 400 points in last hour. 12. This was an unexpected and a crazy move. 13. I expected a rally but didn't expected such a big and quick rally. 14. This makes us learn that never trade against the trend and never fight the trend. 15. The Global trend was positive , everything was positive before this move happened. 16. It was just a matter of time that market would go higher. 17. Now 25250-25300 is a strong support for our Markets. 18. Once resistance is taken out , it becomes a support. 19. It's time to be long on the mar

Peak Volatility !! (12th Sep 24)

1. U.S Markets were highly Volatile yesterday  2. Yesterday U.S CPI data were out and they were mostly as per expectations.  3. U.S Markets being Volatile in nature reacted violently to it  4. At one point of time , all the indices were down around 2% . 5. U.S VIX was up 15% 6. Then Dow & S&P 500 took supports at their previous low and rallies. 7. The short covering rally was so huge that all Indices closed in Green from being negative 2%. 8. Nasdaq closed 2% higher , S&P 500 closed a percent higher whereas Dow closed flat after recovering all Intraday losses. 9. Why am I highlighting all this is because it will be relevant for today expiry. 10. We have an interesting expiry coming up today. 11. Yesterday due to fierce selling in the final hour , option sellers got scared. 12. They have sold calls aggressively. 13. 25000 CE of today expiry has been written aggressively today. 14. It had added huge open interest yesterday.  15. If 25k gets taken out and Nifty sus

Markets Stabilizing !! (11th Sept 24)

1. U.S Markets closed higher yesterday.  2. Dow closed lower whereas S&P 500 & Nasdaq closed higher. 3. U.S VIX corrected 2% Yesterday.  4. Asian markets are slightly lower. 5. Gift Nifty is indicating a gap down of 30 points currently. 6. This suggests that we are going to open close to 25k today. 7. Yesterday the markets consolidated in the first half. 8. Once Nifty crossed 25k , there was increased momentum in the markets.  9. There was a huge short covering rally once nifty crossed 25k. 10. Nifty went close to 25150 yesterday.  11. In the last hour there was some profit booking. 12. Now 25k seems again to be a good support. 13. Today is Wednesday so markets are likely to be a bit more Volatile than usual. 14. This is the past trend which I have been observing for quite some time now. 15. Bank Nifty has also started to perform. 16. One interesting stuff from last 3-4 trading sessions is that PSU shares have began to underperform.  17. PSU Banks have also taken a

Closing above 25k today? (10th Sep 24)

1. U.S Markets closed higher Yesterday.  2. All the Indices closed higher. 3. It was a broad based rally yesterday in which all the indices participated.  4. U.S VIX crashed 13% Yesterday.  5. U.S VIX is now below 20 which is a good sign of Stability.  6. Our Markets closed at the highest point of the day yesterday.  7. This indicates strength in our Markets. 8. This also shows momentum is with Bulls. 9. The larger trend is Bullish now  10. Bears can scream for 1-2 days max in thus market but it's ultimately the Bulls that are ruling. 11. Gift Nifty indicates an opening closer to 25k. 12. Majority of the option premiums collapsed yesterday.  13. This is because India VIX crashed 6% Yesterday.  14. Now the larger range for Nifty is 24750 to 25250. 15. This is the 500 point range in which Nifty is likely to spend this expiry. 16. Bank Nifty finally has shown signs of outperformance yesterday.  17. Yesterday's low of 24750 is now a good support for rest of September ex

Jittery Markets !! (9th Sep 24)

1. U.S Markets closed lower on Friday. 2. All Indices closed lower. 3. Nasdaq is now down 10% from all time high. 4. It has officially entered into correction mode. 5. S&P 500 is down 5% from all time high. 6. Jobs data were not that bad but due to panic and fear markets dipped on Friday. 7. We too witnessed heavy selling on Friday in our Markets. 8. Nifty broke 25k decisively and closed lower. 9. Asian Markets closed lower. 10. Gift Nifty is indicating a gap down of 50-60 points. 11. 24800 is a very crutial support now for Nifty. 12. U.S Markets have also entered into oversold territory and a pullback may be due anytime. 13. I expect downside to be limited from here on. 14. Nifty going above 25k will negate more downside from here. 15. India VIX shot up above 15 on Friday.  16. VIX below 14 is a stable situation for our Markets. 17. 24700 to 25000 is the new range for nifty now 18. Expect markets to consolidate and trade within this for a while. 19. Nifty might trade b

Should you buy the gap down? (6th Sep 24)

1. U.S Markets closed mixed yesterday.  2. Nasdaq closed higher whereas Dow & S&P 500 closed lower. 3. U.S VIX dropped below 20 yesterday.  4. This indicates reducing of fear in U.S Markets. 5. Dow futures are slightly higher right now. 6. Asian Markets are mostly mixed. 7. Gift Nifty is indicating a gap down of 60-70 Points. 8. Yesterday the expiry was rangebound. 9. As I pointed out that 25100 is a good support and 25300 is a resistance. 10. Markets post gap up fell a bit and traded within this range for the whole day. 11. Today we are likely to open near Tuesday low of 25080. 12. 25000 is a strong support now for our Markets. 13. If the Global cues improve,  we can expect a sharp pullback from 25k  14. Risk - reward doesn't favoir in going short post a gap down opening 15. I expect markets to trade between 25000 to 25350 for a while now. 16. It's a buy on Dip market. 17. Nasdaq has given signs of bottoming out yesterday.  18. Bank Nifty is ready to give a

Global Markets Stabilize !! (5th Sep 24)

1. U.S Markets closed flat yesterday.  2. Dow futures are slightly higher right now. 3. Yesterday was a heavy Volatility day in U.S Markets. 4. Markets were trading all over the place. 5. Closing is important in such scenarios and closing was mixed. 6. A mixed closing after a huge panic day is a good thing. 7. Asian markets are slightly higher. 8. Gift Nifty is up 70-80 points. 9. Days like yesterday show the strength of the markets.  10. Yesterday all the Global markers had crashed 3-4% each. 11. Our Markets just closed slightly negative in that negative. 12. It was a normal day for us. 13. There was no panic being seen. 14. We are outperforming all the major markets currently. 15. This is a good sign for our Markets. 16. Coming to today's expiry , there are 2 major labels to be watched out. 17. 25100 and 25300 on Nifty. 18. 25100 has highest PE open interest & 25300 has highest CE open interest.  19. Chances are heavy that 25300 might get tested today. 20. If 2530

Global Markets Correct !! (4th Sep 24)

1. U.S Markets crashed yesterday.  2. Dow futures are lower right now. 3. Asian Markets are all down. 4. Gift Nifty indicates a 100 point gap down opening. 5. Yesterday Dow closed 600 point lower. 6. This must be the lowest single day close for Dow  in last 6 months. 7. U.S VIX jumped 33% in just a day and is now above 20. 8. U.S Markets are such crazy Markets. 9. VIX can jump 150% in just a day without major news flow. 10. Yesterday's correction was led by Nividia. 11. It was down 10% Yesterday.  12. Largest single one day correction in the stock. 13. Yesterday Bank Nifty showed some strength in the 2nd half of the trade 14. Banks are becoming a value buy right now. 15. Banks are 4% away from record highs currently. 16. If Banks catch up and hit a record high , they can itself take Nifty to 26k. 17. 25150-25100 is a major support zone for Nifty. 18. 25k is a very important support now on Nifty as we have highest put OI there. 19. As long as this holds , the view is pos

Consolidation !! (3rd Sep 24)

1. U.S Markets were shut Yesterday.  2. Dow futures are lower right now. 3. Asian Markets are mixed. 4. Gift Nifty indicates a very flat opening. 5. Yesterday Bank Nifty showed some strength in the 2nd half of the trade 6. Banks are becoming a value buy right now. 7. Banks are 4% away from record highs currently. 8. If Banks catch up and hit a record high , they can itself take Nifty to 26k. 9. Right now the market is almost directionless. 10. There is no major trigger to come by. 11. So consolidation with a slight Bullish bias is expected. 12. 25k is a very important support now for positional traders. 13. 25200 is an immediate support for Intraday traders. 14. It's always beneficial to sell options in this kind of environment rather than buying options. 15. Buying options have the risk of decaying of premiums over time. 16. Going with spreads is also a good option. 17. 25k is a very important support now on Nifty. 18. As long as this holds , the view is positive &

Slow Trending Markets !! (2nd Sep 24)

1. U.S Markets closed higher on Friday. 2. Nasdaq & S&P 500 closed below record highs whereas Dow closed at fresh highs. 3. Dow futures are flat right now. 4. Today we gave a U.S holiday. 5. Labor holiday in U.S Markets. 6. Gift Nifty is hovering close to 25400. 7. The underlying tone of the market is quite Bullish currently. 8. Any dip is being bought into. 9. IT , FMCG & Pharma are the outperforming sectors. 10. Bank Nifty has not still joined the rally. 11. Since the day of the Budget , Bank Nifty is underperforming.  12. Nifty is at record highs whereas Bank Nifty is still 3-4% lower from fresh all time high. 13. SBI also reported that they are facing a low deposit issue. 14. Bank deposits have now reduced and people are shifting money into Stock Market instruments.  15. This is a major shift in the mindset. 16. This is the reason for underperformance of Bank Nifty 17. 25k is a very important support now on Nifty. 18. As long as this holds , the view is posi