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Showing posts from September, 2024

October starts on a mixed note !! (30th Sep 2024)

1. U.S Markets closed mixed on Friday. 2. All the indices closed mixed. 3. Right now , Dow futures are slightly higher. 4. U.S VIX was up 10% on Friday. 5. Asian Markets are mostly higher right now. 6. Gift Nifty is indicating a flat opening. 7. Today all the eyes would be on the SEBI meet. 8. SEBI is likely to consider many proposals and changes for expiry. 9. Margin changes , lot changes etc. 10. This would mostly effect the intraday traders. 11. Only for the final decision has come out we would know what is the outcome. 12. Right now , markets are in a Consolidation phase. 13. 26000 to 26250 is the range. 14. Nifty is likely to trade within this range for a while now. 15. October is a long month with 5 weekly expiries. 16. However , this week is truncated. 17. We have only 3 trading sessions left. 18. It's a buy on Dip market currently. 19. 26000 is a good support for this expiry. 20. Nifty might trade between 26000 to 26300 today  21.  stockmarketadvisory.in

Money Shifting to Largecaps? (27th Sep 2024)

1. U.S Markets closed higher Yestersay.  2. All the indices closed higher. 3. Right now , Dow futures are flat. 4. U.S VIX was down 1% yesterday.  5. It was a good day with some positive bias in U.S Markets. 6. Asian Markets are mostly mixed right now. 7. Gift Nifty is indicating a flat opening. 8. Yesterday was a very stable expiry. 9. Nifty didn't even touch 26k throughout the day yesterday.  10. It was trading above 26k for whole of the day and there was a big rally in the final hour. 11. This was due to short covering as traders couldn't believe the ferocious rally in Nifty. 12. Another interesting stuff to notice here is the distribution going on in Mid & Small cap stocks. 13. Smart money has now been shifting from mid and small cap stocks where the valuation comfort is less and now finding comfort in large cap stocks. 14. Many Mutual funds are also sitting on a large cash pile in their mid and small cap funds. 15. Finally the much awaited correction ...

Consolidation? (25th Sep 24)

1. U.S Markets closed higher yesterday.  2. All the indices closed higher. 3. Right now , Dow futures are lower. 4. U.S VIX was down 4% yesterday.  5. It was a good day with some positive bias in U.S Markets. 6. Asian Markets are mostly lower right now. 7. Gift Nifty is indicating a gap down of 50 points. 8. Yesterday , Nifty hit 26k just for a few seconds. 9. After this there was a sudden sell off. 10. I sense it's a matter of time before Nifty crosses 26k. 11. 25700 PE has the highest open interest in monthly options. 12. If there's some Volatility and markets get to this level it's the time to buy. 13. Once 26k is taken out , we could expect an instant 100-200 points rally. 14. 26000 CE also has high open interest among call options. 15. We might have a volatile first half today but in the 2nd half Markets might start to move higher. 16. Also we have Bank Nifty expiry today. 17. This could decide the movement of nifty as well. 18. Its a buy on Dip market 19. ...

Why is VIX shooting up? (24th Sep 2024)

1. U.S Markets closed flat yesterday.  2. All the indices closed flat. 3. Right now , Dow futures are lower. 4. U.S VIX was down 2% yesterday.  5. It was a day of Consolidation after a large rally in U.S Markets. 6. Asian Markets are mostly lower. 7. Gift Nifty is indicating a flat opening. 8. Yesterday evening , Gift Nifty crossed 26k. 9. Nifty is now closer to 26k level now. 10. Thus has been a fantastic and unbelievable rally.  11. I know many people have exited the portfolios after election or budget expecting a crash. 12. Markets keep scaling new highs no matter what happens. 13. It's so tough to time the market. 14. Yesterday I read a news clip stating Mutual fund industry combined has 2.5L crore cash with them. 15. This cash is waiting to be deployed in the markets. 16. Whenever market corrects , we have institutions waiting to make full use of the opportunity.  17. It's not the time to chase the market and its the time to wait for dips. 18. There ...

Time to be Cautious on longs !! (23rd Sep 24)

1. U.S Markets closed flat on Friday. 2. All the indices closed flat. 3. Right now , Dow futures are higher. 4. U.S VIX was down 2% on Friday. 5. It was a day of Consolidation after a large rally in U.S Markets. 6. Asian Markets are mostly higher. 7. Gift Nifty is indicating a 120 point gap up opening. 8. This is a large gap up considering no such big news nor global cues. 9. This gap up is also making me a bit uncomfortable.  10. I expect intraday selling after this gap up. 11. 26000 CE has the highest open interest for 26th September expiry. 12. This would act as a resistance for rest of the series. 13. Bank Nifty on the other hand looks very strong  14. It has decisively taken out its 52 week high. 15. It had been underperforming for quite some time now. 16. Now expect a strong momentum in Bank Nifty for upcoming 3 trading sessions. 17. It's not the time to chase the market and its the time to wait for dips. 18. There will be opportunities and there would be Vol...

Sideways Market !! (20th Sep 24)

1. U.S Markets closed higher Yesterday.  2. All the indices closed slightly lower by at least 2% 3. Right now , Dow futures are flat. 4. U.S VIX was down 10% Yesterday.  5. It was a fantastic & broad based rally in U.S Markets. 6. Asian Markets are mostly higher. 7. Gift Nifty is indicating a 40 point gap up opening. 8. Yesterday was a volatile expiry day. 9. Nifty opened higher , kept rallying and finally reversed from 25600. 10. The profit booking was severe and Nifty made a low of 25400 11. Apart from Bank Nifty , all Indices are under pressure. 12. Mid & Small caps particularly are falling. 13. Nifty highest OI is at 25200 PE & 25500 straddle. 14. 25200 should be a strong support for Nifty this expiry. 15. 25500 straddle combined premium is 300rs 16. 25200 to 25800 is the current range for Nifty. 17. Expect a bit of Volatility and sideways movement. 18. Bank Nifty made a double top of 53350 yesterday which is its all time high. 19. Once all time hig...

50 BPS cut it is !! (19th Sep 24)

1. U.S Markets closed mixed Yesterday.  2. All the indices closed slightly lower. 3. Right now , Dow futures are higher by 200+ Points. 4. U.S VIX was up 2% Yesterday.  5. Yesterday the much anticipated Fed event was finally completed.  6. Asian Markets are mostly higher. 7. Gift Nifty is indicating a 50 point gap up opening. 8. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has cut the interest rates by 50 basis points. 9. Now the lower interest rates cycle has finally begun 10. Fed also indicated that it will take one meeting at a time. 11. To take a decision on the rate cuts etc. 12. U.S Markets were highly Volatile yesterday and there was no immediate reaction 13. Today would be the day where we could get a proper reaction for the event. 14. This Fed event was holding up the markets until now. 15. Moves were being restricted because of the same. 16. Now as this is done , markets are likely to move freely as per the trend. 17. Yesterday's resistance of 25500 is likely to be a ...

Fed Decision Awaits !! (18th Sep 2024)

1. U.S Markets closed mixed Yesterday.  2. All the indices closed flat. 3. Right now , Dow futures are higher. 4. U.S VIX was up 2% Yesterday.  5. VIX is slightly inching higher because of the Fed meeting coming closer. 6. Asian Markets are mostly higher. 7. Gift Nifty is indicating a flat opening. 8. Yesterday was a flat day for our Markets. 9. Expecting a similar move today as well. 10. Markets are now in a consolidation & jittery mode until Fed meeting. 11. Here is my take about Fed event. 12. I am not an astrologer nor a predictor so I don't predict what Fed will do because that's not in my hand. 13. I analyse all the situations along with risk reward and make a plan accordingly.  14. If Fed doesn't go with a rate cut then market would definitely take it adversely and we may fall 3-5% in quick time. 15. If Fed goes with a 25 basis points rate cut, then Fed Commentary would be important  16. If in Commentary,  Fed indicates that in next meetin...

Flat Markets !! (17th Sept 2024)

1. U.S Markets closed mixed yesterday.  2. S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed flat. 3. Dow Closed higher. 4. U.S VIX was up 4% Yesterday.  5. VIX is slightly inching higher because of the Fed meeting coming closer. 6. Asian Markets are mostly higher. 7. Gift Nifty is indicating a gap up of 50 points. 8. Yesterday was a flat day for our Markets. 9. Expecting the sane today as well. 10. Markets are now in a consolidation & jittery mode until Fed meeting.  11. Bank Nifty was a consistent underperformer since the Budget. 12. This is because Bank Deposits were reducing & they were coming into Stock Market.  13. Now Banks have started to perform.  14. Nifty is already at all time high whereas Bank Nifty is still 2-3% away 15. We are in a buy on Dip market.  16. 25200 - 25500 is the range for Nifty.  17. Expect Nifty to trade in the above range until Fed meet. 18. Stay with the trend because one doesn't know when you will be rewarded. 19. Sudde...

Rate Cut on Radar !! (16th Sept 2024)

1. U.S Markets closed higher on Friday. 2. All the indices closed higher. 3. U.S VIX was down 4% on Friday. 4. Asian Markets are mostly higher. 5. Gift Nifty is indicating a gap up of 50 points. 6. Friday was a ranging day for Indian Markets.  7. Markets were flat & trading within half a percent range. 8. Friday was the day of Mid & Small cap stocks. 9. Mid & Small cap stocks outperformed on Friday. 10. This Is a typical Bull market. 11. Everyday one or the other indice is leasing the rally. 12. When Nifty and Bank Nifty rose on Thursday,  mid and small caps were almost flat. 13. On Friday when Nifty & Bank nifty were flat,  Mid and small caps have shined. 14. Currently it's a buy on Dip market. 15. Do not expect high momentum rally. 16. Markets will be slow and trending. 17. It will be testing the patience. 18. Stay with the trend because one doesn't know when you will be rewarded. 19. Sudden moves might come anytime without you being prepared...

Momentum to Continue? (13th Sep 2024)

1. U.S Markets closed higher yesterday.  2. All the indices closed higher. 3. U.S VIX was down 4% Yesterday.  4. Asian Markets are higher. 5. Gift Nifty is indicating a gap up of 50 points. 6. Yesterday was a crazy crazy expiry day. 7. Markets were highly Volatile until 2 pm yesterday.  8. Nifty was trading all over the place. 9. Then came the mother of all short covering tallies. 10. In 2 minutes,  Nifty was up 150 points. 11. Nifty actually went up 400 points in last hour. 12. This was an unexpected and a crazy move. 13. I expected a rally but didn't expected such a big and quick rally. 14. This makes us learn that never trade against the trend and never fight the trend. 15. The Global trend was positive , everything was positive before this move happened. 16. It was just a matter of time that market would go higher. 17. Now 25250-25300 is a strong support for our Markets. 18. Once resistance is taken out , it becomes a support. 19. It's time to be long...

Peak Volatility !! (12th Sep 24)

1. U.S Markets were highly Volatile yesterday  2. Yesterday U.S CPI data were out and they were mostly as per expectations.  3. U.S Markets being Volatile in nature reacted violently to it  4. At one point of time , all the indices were down around 2% . 5. U.S VIX was up 15% 6. Then Dow & S&P 500 took supports at their previous low and rallies. 7. The short covering rally was so huge that all Indices closed in Green from being negative 2%. 8. Nasdaq closed 2% higher , S&P 500 closed a percent higher whereas Dow closed flat after recovering all Intraday losses. 9. Why am I highlighting all this is because it will be relevant for today expiry. 10. We have an interesting expiry coming up today. 11. Yesterday due to fierce selling in the final hour , option sellers got scared. 12. They have sold calls aggressively. 13. 25000 CE of today expiry has been written aggressively today. 14. It had added huge open interest yesterday.  15. If 25k gets take...

Markets Stabilizing !! (11th Sept 24)

1. U.S Markets closed higher yesterday.  2. Dow closed lower whereas S&P 500 & Nasdaq closed higher. 3. U.S VIX corrected 2% Yesterday.  4. Asian markets are slightly lower. 5. Gift Nifty is indicating a gap down of 30 points currently. 6. This suggests that we are going to open close to 25k today. 7. Yesterday the markets consolidated in the first half. 8. Once Nifty crossed 25k , there was increased momentum in the markets.  9. There was a huge short covering rally once nifty crossed 25k. 10. Nifty went close to 25150 yesterday.  11. In the last hour there was some profit booking. 12. Now 25k seems again to be a good support. 13. Today is Wednesday so markets are likely to be a bit more Volatile than usual. 14. This is the past trend which I have been observing for quite some time now. 15. Bank Nifty has also started to perform. 16. One interesting stuff from last 3-4 trading sessions is that PSU shares have began to underperform.  17. PSU ...

Closing above 25k today? (10th Sep 24)

1. U.S Markets closed higher Yesterday.  2. All the Indices closed higher. 3. It was a broad based rally yesterday in which all the indices participated.  4. U.S VIX crashed 13% Yesterday.  5. U.S VIX is now below 20 which is a good sign of Stability.  6. Our Markets closed at the highest point of the day yesterday.  7. This indicates strength in our Markets. 8. This also shows momentum is with Bulls. 9. The larger trend is Bullish now  10. Bears can scream for 1-2 days max in thus market but it's ultimately the Bulls that are ruling. 11. Gift Nifty indicates an opening closer to 25k. 12. Majority of the option premiums collapsed yesterday.  13. This is because India VIX crashed 6% Yesterday.  14. Now the larger range for Nifty is 24750 to 25250. 15. This is the 500 point range in which Nifty is likely to spend this expiry. 16. Bank Nifty finally has shown signs of outperformance yesterday.  17. Yesterday's low of 24750 is now a g...

Jittery Markets !! (9th Sep 24)

1. U.S Markets closed lower on Friday. 2. All Indices closed lower. 3. Nasdaq is now down 10% from all time high. 4. It has officially entered into correction mode. 5. S&P 500 is down 5% from all time high. 6. Jobs data were not that bad but due to panic and fear markets dipped on Friday. 7. We too witnessed heavy selling on Friday in our Markets. 8. Nifty broke 25k decisively and closed lower. 9. Asian Markets closed lower. 10. Gift Nifty is indicating a gap down of 50-60 points. 11. 24800 is a very crutial support now for Nifty. 12. U.S Markets have also entered into oversold territory and a pullback may be due anytime. 13. I expect downside to be limited from here on. 14. Nifty going above 25k will negate more downside from here. 15. India VIX shot up above 15 on Friday.  16. VIX below 14 is a stable situation for our Markets. 17. 24700 to 25000 is the new range for nifty now 18. Expect markets to consolidate and trade within this for a while. 19. Nifty might tra...

Should you buy the gap down? (6th Sep 24)

1. U.S Markets closed mixed yesterday.  2. Nasdaq closed higher whereas Dow & S&P 500 closed lower. 3. U.S VIX dropped below 20 yesterday.  4. This indicates reducing of fear in U.S Markets. 5. Dow futures are slightly higher right now. 6. Asian Markets are mostly mixed. 7. Gift Nifty is indicating a gap down of 60-70 Points. 8. Yesterday the expiry was rangebound. 9. As I pointed out that 25100 is a good support and 25300 is a resistance. 10. Markets post gap up fell a bit and traded within this range for the whole day. 11. Today we are likely to open near Tuesday low of 25080. 12. 25000 is a strong support now for our Markets. 13. If the Global cues improve,  we can expect a sharp pullback from 25k  14. Risk - reward doesn't favoir in going short post a gap down opening 15. I expect markets to trade between 25000 to 25350 for a while now. 16. It's a buy on Dip market. 17. Nasdaq has given signs of bottoming out yesterday.  18. Bank Nifty is...

Global Markets Stabilize !! (5th Sep 24)

1. U.S Markets closed flat yesterday.  2. Dow futures are slightly higher right now. 3. Yesterday was a heavy Volatility day in U.S Markets. 4. Markets were trading all over the place. 5. Closing is important in such scenarios and closing was mixed. 6. A mixed closing after a huge panic day is a good thing. 7. Asian markets are slightly higher. 8. Gift Nifty is up 70-80 points. 9. Days like yesterday show the strength of the markets.  10. Yesterday all the Global markers had crashed 3-4% each. 11. Our Markets just closed slightly negative in that negative. 12. It was a normal day for us. 13. There was no panic being seen. 14. We are outperforming all the major markets currently. 15. This is a good sign for our Markets. 16. Coming to today's expiry , there are 2 major labels to be watched out. 17. 25100 and 25300 on Nifty. 18. 25100 has highest PE open interest & 25300 has highest CE open interest.  19. Chances are heavy that 25300 might get tested today. 2...

Global Markets Correct !! (4th Sep 24)

1. U.S Markets crashed yesterday.  2. Dow futures are lower right now. 3. Asian Markets are all down. 4. Gift Nifty indicates a 100 point gap down opening. 5. Yesterday Dow closed 600 point lower. 6. This must be the lowest single day close for Dow  in last 6 months. 7. U.S VIX jumped 33% in just a day and is now above 20. 8. U.S Markets are such crazy Markets. 9. VIX can jump 150% in just a day without major news flow. 10. Yesterday's correction was led by Nividia. 11. It was down 10% Yesterday.  12. Largest single one day correction in the stock. 13. Yesterday Bank Nifty showed some strength in the 2nd half of the trade 14. Banks are becoming a value buy right now. 15. Banks are 4% away from record highs currently. 16. If Banks catch up and hit a record high , they can itself take Nifty to 26k. 17. 25150-25100 is a major support zone for Nifty. 18. 25k is a very important support now on Nifty as we have highest put OI there. 19. As long as this holds , the v...

Consolidation !! (3rd Sep 24)

1. U.S Markets were shut Yesterday.  2. Dow futures are lower right now. 3. Asian Markets are mixed. 4. Gift Nifty indicates a very flat opening. 5. Yesterday Bank Nifty showed some strength in the 2nd half of the trade 6. Banks are becoming a value buy right now. 7. Banks are 4% away from record highs currently. 8. If Banks catch up and hit a record high , they can itself take Nifty to 26k. 9. Right now the market is almost directionless. 10. There is no major trigger to come by. 11. So consolidation with a slight Bullish bias is expected. 12. 25k is a very important support now for positional traders. 13. 25200 is an immediate support for Intraday traders. 14. It's always beneficial to sell options in this kind of environment rather than buying options. 15. Buying options have the risk of decaying of premiums over time. 16. Going with spreads is also a good option. 17. 25k is a very important support now on Nifty. 18. As long as this holds , the view is positive &...

Slow Trending Markets !! (2nd Sep 24)

1. U.S Markets closed higher on Friday. 2. Nasdaq & S&P 500 closed below record highs whereas Dow closed at fresh highs. 3. Dow futures are flat right now. 4. Today we gave a U.S holiday. 5. Labor holiday in U.S Markets. 6. Gift Nifty is hovering close to 25400. 7. The underlying tone of the market is quite Bullish currently. 8. Any dip is being bought into. 9. IT , FMCG & Pharma are the outperforming sectors. 10. Bank Nifty has not still joined the rally. 11. Since the day of the Budget , Bank Nifty is underperforming.  12. Nifty is at record highs whereas Bank Nifty is still 3-4% lower from fresh all time high. 13. SBI also reported that they are facing a low deposit issue. 14. Bank deposits have now reduced and people are shifting money into Stock Market instruments.  15. This is a major shift in the mindset. 16. This is the reason for underperformance of Bank Nifty 17. 25k is a very important support now on Nifty. 18. As long as this holds , the vie...